377
FXUS64 KBMX 240802
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
302 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024

Watching a MCS move ever so close to the CWA this morning to our
south. On a whole the MCS is decaying as it slides into the drier
airmass to our south and east. To our west, is another developing
MCS that will begin to approach the area late this morning. We
should see some expansion north over the next few hours with this
complex. The consensus of the models bring the system into our area
by Noon and then slide the new MCS southward through the northern
2/3rds of the area during the day. This is still fairly close to the
track from yesterdays guidance. With this timing we do have a chance
at seeing strong to marginally severe storms Friday afternoon and
early evening. Right now as early as 12 PM in the northern counties
and 4 to 5 PM for the Birmingham metro, then 5 to 6 PM for Clanton.
We will need to monitor the trends for areas south of the I-85
corridor to see if the threat continues into these areas. Based on
current timing, the severe threat would be over by 9 or 10 PM.

Another round of showers and storms will likely develop in Arkansas
this afternoon and then slide through the area overnight. With the
later timing of the first round this afternoon, the area should be
fairly worked over, so widespread severe storms are not expected.
There could be some strong storms and we will be monitoring as
needed.

This second round would create a bubble over the area, keeping most
of the activity to our south on Saturday. This is a complete flip
flop from the concern yesterday. So right now, the severe threat on
Saturday is more of a conditional marginal risk. If the path of the
next 2 MCSs are forecast correctly, then a band of showers and
storms will develop in or around the I-85 corridor on Saturday, on
the south-side of the bubble high that would set up across the north.
The main front associated with the MCS train will remain to the
north.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024

A weakening cold front begins to slow to our northwest Sunday as the
main low pressure system lifts through the Midwest into the Great
Lakes region. For Central AL, it will be hot and humid ahead of the
boundary, though it still unclear whether the front actual pushes
into our area. We`ll have to keep an eye on a possible MCS coming
down during the daytime on Sunday given the hot/humid conditions and
the convection along the front upstream. More details on that will
become available as we get closer. For now, there could be strong to
severe storms again Sunday, but there`s quite a bit of uncertainty
on the exact timing. We might have continued storm chances Monday
and Tuesday before the main trough finally pushes to our east, but
again, mesoscale details will need to be worked out in the coming
days. Slightly cooler and drier air builds in by roughly midweek
leading to rain-free conditions and seasonable temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024

A few shortwave troughs move through the zonal flow aloft during
the period. The best moisture will be north and therefore that is
where the pops will be mentioned. A few showers and thunderstorms
may approach the northern terminals after 15z and have PROB30
mention after 18z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected most of the
time at most locations. TOI may experience a brief period around
sunrise of some MVFR ceilings and vis. This restriction should be
short-lived and dissipate quickly with heating. Winds become 5-10 kts
by 15z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several opportunities for rain and storms through the weekend, as
several impulses provide focus for convection, with enhanced
coverage during the afternoon and evening, especially across
northern counties. 20 foot winds will be from the south to
southwest at less than 10 mph through Sunday. Min RH value will be
near or above 50% through Sunday, with overnight recoveries near
100%.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  65  88  66 /  60  50  40  20
Anniston    88  67  88  69 /  60  60  40  20
Birmingham  89  70  89  71 /  60  60  40  20
Tuscaloosa  89  70  91  71 /  40  60  30  10
Calera      88  70  88  70 /  40  60  40  20
Auburn      87  70  86  70 /  30  50  30  10
Montgomery  90  71  90  71 /  20  40  30  10
Troy        90  70  90  70 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...16