420
FXUS64 KBMX 200815
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
315 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

The main storm system has exited the US and is in the Atlantic
Ocean. There is a weak meso-low still in the southern fringe of
the Appalachians, trapped by the high pressure building to the
north, while high pressure also builds into the Southeast. For
today, sunny skies will prevail with highs in the 80s. There is a
slight chance that some isolated showers may develop on the outer
edge of the meso-low. Most models remain dry, but a few have the
outside chance. Opted to go with a 10 percent chance versus the 0
percent the model blends were offering up. Anything that does
develop would quickly dissipate by sunset. As we move into the
evening there could be some clouds that develop with the easterly
flow across the east, with more of wedge influence, but should
remain rain free. This wedge erodes on Tuesday and we are left
with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will be
in the 80s to a few near 90 degrees in the west.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

A low-level ridge will be situated across the Southeast on
Wednesday, with southerly/southwesterly flow spreading from the
Lower Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley, near an associated
cold front. We`ll be in the upper 80s lower 90s that afternoon.
The front will slowly progress east, facing resistance from a low-
amplitude ridge across our region. Nonetheless, PWs and
instability values make a slow increase across the Tennessee
Valley, and by Thursday afternoon, some diurnal convection is
possible. Only our far northwest/northern counties have
mentionable PoPs Thursday. Medium-range guidance still depicts a
shortwave perturbation moving across the I-40 corridor to our
north on Friday. Convective coverage will increase as a result,
but most activity still appears to remain to our north. Presence
of the mid- to upper-level ridge will wane by Memorial Day weekend
as guidance suggests a more zonal, split-flow aloft. Isolated to
scattered diurnal convection is forecast Saturday and Sunday with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s - very summer-like weather.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

VFR conditions expected over the 24 hours with generally light
winds from the east. We may see some clouds drop down to MVFR in
the eastern TAFs just outside this cycle, so will evaluate that
with the 12z set.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally sunny skies for the first of the week. 20 foot winds
will become east-southeast at 4-7 mph this afternoon, with Min RH
values at 40-50 percent. Max RH overnight will be over 90
percent. 20 foot winds will be southeast at 3-6 mph Tuesday, with
Min RH values at 35-45 percent. Next chance for wetting rain on
Thursday across the far north, with a better chance on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  59  88  61 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    86  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  87  63  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  88  64  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      86  63  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      83  63  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  86  63  87  65 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        85  62  87  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...16