Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
613 FXUS65 KBOI 201511 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 911 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .DISCUSSION...Sunny warm days and clear cool nights. Breezy northwest wind this afternoon and evening, less windy Saturday. Full details in prev discussion below. No updates. && .AVIATION...VFR with high clouds. Surface winds: becoming NW 5-15 kt with local gusts to 20 kt this evening. Winds at 10kft: West-northwest 10-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. East winds shift to the northwest this morning and will remain NW through Saturday. Weekend Outlook...VFR with scattered high clouds. Afternoon surface winds W-NW 5 to 15 kt. Winds aloft NW 15 to 20 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Northwest flow becomes more prominent today into Saturday as an upper wave tracks along the US/Canada border. Surface winds will respond in kind, ticking up this afternoon and again Saturday with gusts to 20 mph along the I-84 corridor from late morning through evening. While high temperatures will hold steady through the weekend, drier air will allow for cooler overnight lows, especially Saturday morning. A more amplified upper trough will move through the region Sunday night increasing cloud cover. It`s still looking like a dry passage, with any minimal chance of showers (10-15%) staying in the mountains north and east of McCall. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Northwest flow follows the upper trough passage on Monday. This will refresh the gusty northwest surface winds across open terrain. Tuesday warms into Wednesday which still looks to be the warmest day next week. At lower elevations the probability for highs 80F or warmer is around 90% on Wednesday. Confidence wanes for Thur/Fri as the 00Z operational models continue to show poor run-to-run consistency on how to evolve the upper ridge responsible for the warming. The forecast follows the ensemble mean which has trended warmer for Thursday before cooling on Friday as the ridge flattens. There is good agreement that it remains dry through next week. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....DG