Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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607 FXUS64 KBRO 201730 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Strong mid-level ridging will remain anchored over Texas and northern Mexico through the period. Near to slightly above normal high temperatures and with a persistent southeast fetch of Gulf moisture dew points are expected to remain elevated through Saturday. The combination of heat and elevated humidity will support to "feel like" temperatures well over 100 degrees this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. WPCs experimental heat risk shows a moderate risk for all areas of Deep South Texas, except the immediate coastline for this afternoon. Tonight will be warmer than normal with lows in the the mid to upper 70 and the lower 80s. Differential heating and weak sea-breeze will be the forcing and lifting mechanism to fire off the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for later this morning into the afternoon. Another around of isolated convection is expected across the area on Saturday. The risk current risk will remain low through the period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Elongated 500 mb high pressure, initially centered over south Texas, will become increasingly stretched as it shifts into the Eastern Seaboard. This will allow mid-level low pressure to become more dominant over the Lone Star State. Overall, enough tropical moisture will exist within the BRO CWFA, and combine with daytime heating, to produce isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. With precipitable water values ranging between 1.5 and 2 inches, heavy rain is not anticipated to be an issue. Temperature-wise, no extreme values are expected, with daytime highs and overnight lows in the near to slightly above normal range. Thus, neither a HEAT ADVISORY nor a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for heat indices is likely to be needed. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. However, some MVFR conditions are possible as the sea breeze moves through the area during the afternoon hours. However, those conditions seem to be present for only a short amount of time. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF package. Southeasterly to easterly winds are expected through the period as well, and should remain mostly light for the period. Maybe a bit gustier for MFE, but that should also be for a very short time period as well. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through Saturday. Broad high pressure across the Gulf will continue to maintain light east to southeast winds and low seas. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible. (Saturday Night through Thursday) Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will generally prevail through a majority of the period along the Lower Texas Coast courtesy of high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not expected to be needed. However, more adverse conditions may occur on Thursday due to an organizing tropical system in the central Gulf of Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 79 91 77 / 30 10 30 30 HARLINGEN 93 76 92 74 / 30 0 20 30 MCALLEN 98 79 96 77 / 20 0 30 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 77 94 76 / 10 10 20 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 87 82 / 30 10 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 78 89 76 / 30 10 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...64-Katz