614
FXUS61 KBTV 260548
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
148 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a day of showery weather, more widespread precipitation will
move through later tonight into Thursday, with drier weather
returning for the weekend. After today, temperatures will be rather
seasonable for the remainder of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1227 AM EDT Thursday...The first round of rain is moving
through Vermont while a break has formed over much of northern
New York. This gap will move into Vermont in the next few hours,
but even in it there will still be a couple of light showers.
The next round of rain will move into northern New York in the
next couple hours and spread into Vermont later in the night.
The highest totals so far have been in a stretch over the
Champlain Valley where 1-1.5 inches has fallen, but even in the
areas that receive the most rain, no flooding is expected.

Previous Discussion...
After a round of showers this morning that broke the dry
stretch across the region, a lull in precipitation can be seen
this afternoon. The upper trough centered over Ontario will
continue to dig into the Great Lakes, before closing off and
moving eastward along the international border. This feature,
along with more favorable moisture and dynamics will bring more
widespread showers to the region this evening, but especially
during the overnight hours. A frontal boundary moving through
the region will be the driving feature for showers on Thursday.
With PWAT values near 1.5 inches, some heavier downpours will be
possible during the day tomorrow. Expected rainfall totals will
generally be 1-2 inches with some locally higher amounts in
spots that see several rounds of heavier showers. Some ponding
in poor drainage areas may be possible, but the rainfall amounts
should be quiet manageable given the dry antecedent conditions.
Precipitation will come to an end Thursday night in the wake of
the cold front as drier air quickly moves in, although some
lingering moisture may be enough for a few isolated showers
given the proximity to the upper low.

In addition to the precipitation, some breezy conditions can be
expected this evening and possibly overnight hours, especially
with the current lull in precipitation. A Lake Wind Advisory has
been issued for Lake Champlain for this evening and the
overnight hours. As more widespread rainfall begins to move in,
the mixing potential will become more limited, and by tomorrow
the winds will abate and becoming more westerly behind the cold
front. Temperatures tonight will be mild with the precipitation
and overcast skies, with lows generally in the 50s. Tomorrow
will be a few degrees warmer than today for most of the forecast
area with temperatures in the 60s to even some low 70s in the
St. Lawrence Valley, although eastern Vermont will remain cool
again in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...As low pressure pulls away into
Atlantic Canada Friday, some wrap around moisture and
northwesterly flow could produce a few light, insignificant
showers in the Northeast Kingdom. Have in PoPs up to 15-25%.
Otherwise, dry weather with potential lingering low clouds are
expected throughout the day. Highs are expected to increase
slightly from Thursday into the mid 60s to lower 70s, still
quite close to seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure is expected to build into
the region this weekend into early next week. This will allow
temperatures to sit slightly above climatological normals through
Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s
to mid 50s. Dry weather will also be the theme under high pressure
through about Tuesday. Sunday looks to be the warmest and sunniest
day of the period. Each night under the high pressure and light
winds, there is the potential for some patchy valley fog, but this
could depend on each night`s sky cover.

Models are coming into better agreement on a cold front producing
our next round of precipitation on or around Tuesday night (30-50%
chance of rainfall), though the potential for a slower arrival of
rain exists with some chances on Wednesday (20-40% chance of
rainfall). Ensembles are indicating there is still a relatively low
chance of 24 hour precip totals over a half an inch. This cold front
will also drop temperatures somewhat dramatically with highs
Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Wednesday night
potentially in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday... Periods of rain will move through during the
night and into the day today. The heaviest showers will briefly
lower visibilities to MVFR, though a few may be able to lower
visibilities to IFR. The heaviest rain looks to be a few hours on
both sides of sunrise. Rain will taper off from northwest to
southeast during the day today. Ceilings will trend relatively
steady during the night, but there will be some fluctuations. The
exceptions are MPV and SLK where they will lower as the night goes
on. Ceilings will gradually rise during the day today and most
should be VFR by this evening. Fog development is likely tonight in
the climatologically favored airports of MPV, SLK and EFK, though it
will be possible at any of the rest. Winds will be southerly during
the night before gradually changing to the west during the day and
into the evening. Gusts over 20 KTs during the night are possible at
BTV and PBG before lowering during the day today. LLWS will be
present at most terminals during the night before weakening below
the threshold late tonight and during the day today.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect overnight and into the early
morning, with strong south to southeasterly winds between 15 to
30 knots. Wave heights will range between 3-5 feet on the broad
waters. Winds will begin to abate tomorrow, becoming more
westerly between 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Myskowski
MARINE... Team BTV