549
FXUS61 KBTV 261922
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
322 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of some lingering showers or drizzle tonight, dry weather
will prevail through Monday accompanied by above average
temperatures. Patchy valley fog is possible on quiet, calm nights.
By midweek next week, a cold front may bring some showers and cooler
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 PM EDT Thursday...Some low clouds are expected to linger in
slow moving and blocked flow, particularly in the valleys.
Otherwise, mid and high level clouds will clear out, and low cloud
coverage could be mixed. A shortwave will just skim the northeastern
portion of the forecast area, so there`s the potential for an
isolated shower in the Northeast Kingdom at some point in the night,
but chances of measurable precipitation are very low. More likely
will be soupy conditions with low clouds and drizzle.

Winds will go light to calm in the valleys with surface high
pressure building in from Ontario, so any clearer spots could have
fog developing, though gradient winds aloft could limit this
potential. Lows will be slightly above seasonal averages tonight in
the mid 40s to mid 50s. Friday looks to be a pleasant, dry day with
highs just a touch above climatological normals and some breaks in
the clouds likely. Friday night will be much calmer with more
potential for fog than tonight. Lows will be slightly cooler in the
mid 40s to lower 50s with more efficient radiational cooling in
clear spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure is projected to remain over
the North Country Saturday through early next week with dry
conditions. Temperatures will trend warmer rising 3-6 degrees above
seasonal averages in the low 70s on Saturday and cooling into the
mid/upper 40s to low 50s Saturday night. This high should keep the
future remnants of Helene shunted well southwest towards the Ohio
River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 322 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday and Monday are projected to be the
warmest days heading into the extended forecast with high pressure
continuing with southerly flow increasing as a trough approaches the
region; temperatures likely in the 70s. Model consensus begins to
diverge Tuesday through Thursday on timing of the approaching wave
and on how much moisture becomes entrained in southerly flow off the
future remnants of Helene. While rain is becoming increasingly
likely Tuesday into Wednesday, the eventual transition and continued
modification of Helene into an post tropical system will likely
limit what moisture can move northward ahead of the approaching
front; model projections keep it cut off from upper level flow.
Therefore, current expectations are that rain will be more
associated with forcing from the front rather than having tropical
characteristic. This front should push through with its parent low
lifting northward with high temperatures returning to around
seasonal averages in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Rain chances are
favored to decrease late next week with more limited post-frontal
showers lingering through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions are in
place across the forecast area this afternoon as a cold front
gradually shifts rainfall south and east. MSS is already
reporting clearing skies and dry conditions, and the other sites
should follow suit this evening and tonight. However, low clouds
could linger, particularly across Vermont, in slow moving and
blocked flow, resulting in some drizzle and IFR potential
overnight tonight. Best chances of drizzle and low clouds
producing IFR conditions will be at EFK, BTV, and MPV, though it
is possible at any site, including RUT. SLK is most likely of
the sites to have enough clear skies following rain to produce
true IFR fog. Overall, best timing for IFR conditions tonight
will be 06Z-12Z Friday, though drizzle and low clouds could
start slightly earlier, perhaps around 03Z or 04Z Friday. LLWS
is becoming less and less of a threat as the cold front sweeps
through the forecast area, and we are not expecting any
significant LLWS at the sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will
be on the decrease, turning from southerly to northwesterly with
the frontal passage.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Storm