487
FXUS61 KBUF 270535
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
135 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes, providing fair and
dry weather through Friday. For the weekend the remnants of Helene
will approach from the south, bringing an increase in cloud cover
and possibly a few rain showers at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will ridge into the region overnight. This will keep
the area dry, however skies will only remain clear for the North
Country since high clouds associated with moisture from the tropics
will push northward into the area. This will prevent fog from
forming for most areas, except for east of Lake Ontario where fog is
likely to develop tonight.

High pressure to our north will keep Friday rain free, however
clouds will continue to move northward across the area during
the day. Highs will mainly be in the lower 70s, but will
forecast will hedge slightly on the cool side of model guidance
due to the extensive cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
What used to look like a spectacular weekend is now looking a
little less so. It will be far from a washout, but there will be
quite a bit of cloud cover and periodic chances for showers. The
reason is the remnants of Helene. While there remains high
confidence that high pressure to our north will keep the center
of its remnant circulation well to our south, moisture from the
very large hurricane will be able to spread into our region.
Overall, the vast majority of the weekend will be rain-free
however there`s a chance of showers especially across the
Southern Tier which will be a bit closer to the remnant low.
Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy with a moderate northeasterly
wind.

Temperatures will be above normal, and generally comfortable for
outdoor activities. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and overnight lows mainly in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The remnants of Helene will linger to our south and west Monday,
with the moisture close enough to support a small chance of
showers across southern and western parts of the area. After
this, a mid-level trough will move across southern Canada, which
will effectively sweep out the remnant moisture Tuesday into
Wednesday. However, models differ in the strength of this
trough and with its interaction with the tropical remnants. The
majority of model guidance pick up limited tropical moisture as
a cold front moves across the area Tuesday night. A notable
exception is the 12Z GEM which phases the tropical moisture with
the shortwave. In this lower chance scenario would bring a more
significant rainfall with amounts around an inch.

Either way, the cold front/system will exit to our east
Wednesday, with cooler weather and highs mainly in the 60s behind
it. A small chance of showers Wednesday, then high pressure
building in behind the front will bring fair and dry weather for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build in overnight keeping it rain-free, but
cloud cover associated with tropical moisture will begin to
push in from the south tonight. This will prevent fog from
forming at KJHW and most other TAF sites, however there is a
risk of fog at KART where skies will remain clear tonight.

Any fog will quickly dissipate Friday, with mainly VFR flight
conditions. Some clouds with bases around 4k feet will push into
the Southern Tier with patchy MVFR possible.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, with areas of MVFR in low
cigs and showers across the Southern Tier at times.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and negligible waves through tonight as high pressure
ridges in from the north. Northeast flow will then pick up Friday,
likely requiring small craft headlines on Lake Erie and western Lake
Ontario for at least some of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...Apffel/TMA
MARINE...AR/Apffel/TMA