201
FXUS61 KBUF 271349
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
949 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Our region will have NO significant impacts from the tropical
remnants of Helene.

While weak high pressure will maintain fair dry weather today...
high cloudiness from the remnants of Helene will gradually push
northwards across our region. The high clouds will lower and
thicken from the south tonight through the weekend with parts of
western New York receiving some nuisance showers...but the
significant rains from the tropical remnants will stay WELL
south of our forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...ZERO Significant Impacts from the Remnants of Helene...

High pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain dry weather
today, although higher level cloud cover associated with tropical
moisture from Helene will continue to spread northward. The
extensive cloud cover should hold temperatures down a bit from
most guidance with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The
remnants of Helene will shift westward towards the Ohio Valley
tonight. Some leading bands of rain may sneak into southern
portions of the area for a time, but a mid-level dry slot
wrapping in from the south-southeast should keep the rain light
and rather spotty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A closed low will meander across the Ohio Valley while an upper
level ridge slowly pushes east of the region this weekend. A warm,
moist conveyor belt with remnants of tropical moisture from Helene
will move into the forecast area this weekend. The forecast
continues to trend wet and cloudy across western NY this weekend. A
few shortwave troughs on the north side of the closed low will swing
by the forecast area. This may trigger rain showers across western
NY, however showers should not cause a washout. Surface high
pressure and the upper level ridge will fend off the moisture and
keep the Eastern Lake Ontario region mostly dry, albeit cloudy.

Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the low to mid
70s Saturday and Sunday and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The closed low with remnants of Helene will finally get forward
speed as a trough deepens across the Northern Plains Monday through
Monday night. Initially, an upper level ridge will be across the
Great Lakes region maintaining mostly dry weather Monday. Then, the
low will become an open wave and lift northeast and cause moisture
to move into the forecast area into Tuesday. A southerly flow will
deepen Tuesday as the trough to the west moves into the Great Lakes
region. A strong cold front will move across the forecast area in
the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame. Showers will likely
accompany the cold front with the potential for a few thunderstorms.
Cold air advection will occur immediately behind the front with
ensemble mean 850mb temperatures falling to +5C by Wednesday night.
Strong subsidence and drier air will move into the region for
Thursday.

Temperatures will be above normal Monday and Tuesday, then close to
normal Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure over the region will maintain fair VFR conditions
through the afternoon. While clouds will lower and thicken from the
south tonight...VFR conditions will persist with nothing more than some
spotty light showers over the western counties.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with areas of MVFR in low
cigs and showers.
Monday night and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and negligible waves this morning as high pressure ridges
in from the north. Northeast flow will pick up this afternoon and into
this weekend as the remnants of Helene advance towards the Ohio Valley
tightening the pressure gradient across the lower Great Lakes. Small
craft headlines may been needed for the early portion of the weekend on
Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...TMA/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...TMA