667
FXUS61 KBUF 261728
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
128 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push south and east of the area with any
lingering showers tapering off by this evening. High pressure
will then build across the Great Lakes, providing fair and dry
weather through Friday. For the weekend the remnants of Helene
will approach from the south, bringing an increase in cloud
cover and possibly a few rain showers at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front extending across Central New York will continue to
push south and east of the area this afternoon. Radar shows
some showers lingering from the Upper Genesee River Valley to
the Eastern Lake Ontario region early this afternoon. These
showers will taper off by this evening, as drier air builds in
behind the front. Some breaks of sun will allow very limited
instability around 300 J/Kg to develop this afternoon, which may
allow a few instability showers and isolated thunderstorms to
develop just behind the departing frontal boundary. Skies
clearing from north to south will allow temperatures to rise
into the lower to mid 70s across lower elevations.

High pressure will ridge into the region behind the front
tonight. This will keep the area dry, however skies will only
clear out from Buffalo to Syracuse northward since high clouds
associated with moisture from the tropics will push northward
into the area. This will prevent fog from forming for most
areas, expect east of Lake Ontario where fog is likely to
develop tonight.

High pressure to our north will keep Friday rain free, however
clouds will continue to move northward across the area during
the day. Highs will mainly be in the lower 70s, but will
forecast will hedge slightly on the cool side of model guidance
due to the extensive cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
What used to look like a spectacular weekend is now looking a
little less so. It will be far from a washout, but there will be
quite a bit of cloud cover and periodic chances for showers. The
reason is the remnants of Helene. While there remains high
confidence that high pressure to our north will keep the center
of its remnant circulation well to our south, moisture from the
very large hurricane will be able to spread into our region.
Overall, the vast majority of the weekend will be rain-free
however there`s a chance of showers especially across the
Southern Tier which will be a bit closer to the remnant low.
Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy with a moderate northeasterly
wind.

Temperatures will be above normal, and generally comfortable for
outdoor activities. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and overnight lows mainly in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The longwave pattern will continue to be dynamic through mid-week,
with more unsettled weather re-emerging. By Monday, the remnants
of Helene will be circulating within the partially open, positively
tilted wave over the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic states. This
could lead to a few showers across the far Southern Tier Monday,
though high pressure ridging to the north should keep conditions
mostly dry.

A sharp shortwave trough will quickly approach the region from the
Upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. Past model runs showed the
potential for this trough to phase with the exiting trough to the
south, however it looks like models have separated these systems.
Therefore, Tuesday looks mostly dry with the potential for a brief
period of ridging across the region. A strong cold front will move
through the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday.

While temperatures are expected to continue to average above normal
Monday and Tuesday, much cooler air in the wake of the front will
finally give us a taste of fall weather by Wednesday. Models are far
from lock and step with the depth of the cooler airmass, though
ensemble mean 850H temps are around +8C by Wednesday which should
translate to highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. This will also be
plenty cold enough to potentially spur some additional lake effect
rain showers Wednesday, though the airmass may be initially too dry
for this to be realized.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will push south and east of the area, with a
clearing trend behind this front. Lingering MVFR cigs across the
Southern Tier will giveway to mainly VFR, with showers also
ending by this evening. All our TAF sites have already gone VFR
for the 18Z TAF cycle.

After this, high pressure will build in behind the front tonight
and Friday. The high will keep it rain-free but cloud cover
associated with tropical moisture will begin to push in from
the south tonight. This will prevent fog from forming at KJHW
and most other TAF sites, however there is a risk of fog at KART
where skies will remain clear tonight.

Any fog will quickly dissipate Friday, with mainly VFR flight
conditions. Some clouds with bases around 4k feet will push into
the Southern Tier with patchy MVFR possible.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, with areas of MVFR in low
cigs and showers across the Southern Tier at times.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and negligible waves through tonight as high
pressure ridges in from the north. Northeast flow will then
pick up Friday, likely requiring small craft headlines on Lake
Erie and western Lake Ontario for at least some of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...HSK/PP
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...AR/Apffel