828
FXUS61 KBUF 200228
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like warmth is expected through mid-week. Mainly dry weather
is expected through Tuesday before chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase with the passage of a cold front Tuesday
night into Wednesday night. Cooler weather will follow the front
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
Mid level ridge and surface high pressure building into the region
will provide dry weather overnight. Likely will see another round of
fog tonight, although low level moisture looks to be a bit less,
probably keeping fog not as widespread or dense as last night. It
will be another mild night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Summer-like warmth starts to build into the region Monday. Mid level
ridge remains over the area Monday as surface high pressure slides
to the east. For the most part Monday looks dry, but there is an
outside chance for a shower or storm on a lake breeze boundary
during peak heating. Temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal with most highs in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heading into Monday night in the upper levels of the atmosphere, a
large trough will be spread across the Rockies, while a ridge will
span across the eastern half of the United States. Meanwhile, within
the trough to the west, a shortwave trough will be in the midst
passing east across the Upper Great Lakes. Translating this pattern
down to the surface, the longwave trough aloft to the west will
support a surface low over the Central Plains with a cold front to
extend southward across the rest of the Plains, where it will
gradually traverse northeast throughout the first half of the week.
Additionally, the shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes Monday
night will support a surface low over northern Canada, placing its
weakening frontal boundary to the north of the region Monday night
through Tuesday, as surface high pressure elongated along the
Northeast`s Atlantic coastline remains strong to support primarily
dry warm weather. Given the surface pattern, a southeasterly breeze
Tuesday will support temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a few
locations across the southern Genesee Valley reaching 90.

As the surface low passes northeast across the upper Great Lakes
Tuesday night and Wednesday, an approaching cold front will support
showers and thunderstorms to pass across the area from west to east.
Speaking of thunderstorms, provided the favorable timing some storms
may have the potential of becoming well developed, as there will be
plenty of instability with CAPE values surge towards 2500-3000 J/kg
and lapse rates reach upwards of 8C/km, along with shear values of
+150 m^2/s^2. Showers and thunderstorms will then continue into
Wednesday night as the cold front passes across the area. Otherwise
expect another warm day Wednesday with highs surging into the low to
mid 80s across the higher terrain and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front will be exiting our region Thursday, with a much drier
airmass settling into the region. A reinforcing secondary cold front
will lower 850 hPa temperatures into the mid single digits by Friday
morning, that with light winds should allow for mid 40s Thursday
night well inland, to around 50 near the Lakes.

High pressure will bring a dry start to the Memorial Day weekend
with moderating temperatures back to and above normal. There is a
potential hiccup, and that is for a potential return flow of low
level moisture that will bring clouds and light showers to the
region later Saturday and Saturday night as advertised by the 12Z
GFS and some of the ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF. For now will
have slight chance PoPs until better agreement of this potential
return flow low level moisture by the models. The next
system/shortwave of note that will bring showers and thunderstorms
will arrive from the west later Sunday or Monday. There is still a
good deal of uncertainty with this feature, in part due to the
uncertainty in the timeframe ahead of it.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions early tonight will give way to some IFR level stratus
and fog after 08z.

Areas of IFR stratus and fog early Monday morning will then give way
to widespread VFR conditions with light winds.

Outlook...
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Not much airmass change over the lower Great Lakes tonight which
will keep the potential for more dense fog to develop. The greatest
chance of this looks to be across Lake Ontario.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front
near the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will likely remain
below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions
may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front into
the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JM/TMA