Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
906 FXUS65 KBYZ 202005 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 205 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday night... A few showers had developed N of the forecast area, ahead of the approaching cold front this afternoon. Also, GLM and echo strength supported isolated thunder. Added a small PoP across the northern tier from 18Z-21Z, then kept the rest of the afternoon and evening PoPs as they were from the earlier update. A few snow showers are possible in the high elevations of the Beartooths. Front still forecast to dive through the area from 21Z-00Z, accompanied by gusty winds that will continue into tonight. Nudged the gusts up toward the NBM 90th percentile based on what the ECMWF meteograms were showing. Had localized patchy fog in the forecast tonight through early Saturday. Cyclonic flow aloft on Sat. will push E during the day. PWAT`s were low, so kept the forecast dry. It will be cooler behind the front with highs in the 60s. Winds will be gusty E of KBIL under the stronger flow aloft. Weak ridging will keep dry weather over the area Sat. night. HRRR had some patchy fog over KSHR. Arthur Sunday through Thursday... Main forecast concerns next week are on precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday then drying out with warming temperatures next week. The next weather system to pass through the region will be Sunday night into Monday as a trough and cold front sweep through the area. This system will bring medium chances for rain to the region along with some snow for higher elevations. This system quickly exits the area Monday afternoon then ridging builds in. WPC clusters continue to indicate high confidence in ridging building over portions of the western CONUS producing warmer and drier conditions for the region. There is a 67 percent chance that highs will reach or exceed 75 degrees at Billings on Thursday with probabilities increasing to 78 percent on Friday. The ridge looks to break down later on Thursday so will have to keep an on this period for timing of the frontal passage. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front sweeps through the region late this afternoon into tonight bringing sct-bkn clouds with bases in the 4kft-7kft range. Isolated rain showers are also possible. Surface high pressure returns by Saturday morning with quiet weather expected the remainder of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 043/061 040/073 051/068 045/072 048/080 052/081 052/080 20/U 00/U 13/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U LVM 034/063 034/075 043/067 040/074 044/081 047/080 047/079 00/U 00/U 24/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/U HDN 041/062 036/074 045/069 042/073 044/082 048/082 047/081 20/U 00/U 03/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U MLS 044/062 039/072 046/071 045/071 046/080 051/081 050/081 20/U 00/U 01/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 044/061 038/073 045/070 045/071 046/080 052/082 051/083 20/U 00/U 02/W 10/B 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 042/061 036/071 043/071 042/071 044/079 049/080 048/080 20/B 00/U 01/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 039/063 034/075 042/068 040/073 042/083 046/083 047/082 20/U 00/U 03/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings