Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
809 FXUS65 KBYZ 311958 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 158 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through Saturday night... Satellite imagery shows broad cyclonic flow across the region with the trough axis sliding slowly across eastern Montana. This was producing light isolated showers ahead of the axis. CAPE is rather low (<500 J/kg), but an isolated thunderstorm is possible late this afternoon into the early evening along the MT/Dakota border. Lows tonight will not be quite as cool as last night with readings in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Building flat ridge will then result in dry conditions through mid to late afternoon Saturday. PWATS will gradually increase tomorrow, to near 0.75", resulting in late day SB CAPE of 250-750 J/kg along the foothills. Temps will be warmer tomorrow as well with highs in the mid 70s to around 80F. By evening we should see some convection over our western mountains as short wave energy comes out of the Rockies riding along the flat ridge to zonal flow pattern. Look for isolated to scattered (Pops 15-35%) showers and thunderstorms to spread east/northeast Saturday evening and overnight. The best chance of measurable rainfall is in our NW zones while the southeast corner misses out on any precipitation. Low CAPE and only modest shear should keep convection pretty tame with only garden variety thunderstorms. Lows Saturday night will range from mid 40s to lower 50s. BT Sunday through Friday... An upper trough crosses the forecast area on Sunday, and a cold front departs SE MT. Will have 20-30% PoPs in the far E, with the front. From KBIL W...there will be 30-60% PoPs for showers and thunderstorms. There will be some MLCAPE and shear over the far SE for possible stronger storms. Chances of QPF of at least 0.25 inches are less than 10%. Temps will be around normal for this time of year. Trough will push E into the area Mon. evening, bringing a cold front through the area. High PoPs for showers and storms overspread the area from W to E Mon. evening. CWASP values will be in the 50s, so some strong storms are possible. Chances for at least 0.25 inches of QPF are 20-30% Mon. night as PWAT`s climb to 0.75-1.00 inch. It will be warm on Monday ahead of the cold front...with highs in the low to mid 80s E of KBIL. Upper ridging or a NW flow will be over the region on Tuesday, with a 20% chance of showers in the morning. Temps will be around normal values...in the 70s. Tuesday will be windy, especially W with gusts near 50 mph. Ridging or NW flow will continue over the area Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will be another breezy day. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and it will be a bit warmer on Thursday. There was poor model agreement with the pattern on Friday. Forecast was mainly dry with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains in the afternoon. Temps will continue in the 80s. Arthur && .AVIATION... Isolated light showers will continue east of a KMLS-Alzada line through 02Z before dissipating. Otherwise...VFR will prevail. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 044/077 052/074 054/079 051/074 053/082 053/082 056/085 00/U 33/T 01/E 72/W 00/U 00/U 11/U LVM 039/076 047/073 051/072 046/071 051/080 051/084 054/085 01/B 35/T 16/T 71/N 00/N 00/U 11/U HDN 042/079 051/076 051/082 051/075 052/082 052/084 054/087 00/U 22/W 01/E 72/W 10/U 00/U 11/U MLS 042/078 053/076 052/082 053/073 053/079 051/082 054/085 00/U 21/B 01/B 72/W 10/N 00/U 10/U 4BQ 044/079 053/076 052/083 053/074 053/079 051/082 054/085 00/U 11/B 00/B 62/W 10/U 00/U 10/U BHK 041/076 050/076 049/081 051/071 049/076 048/079 049/080 20/U 23/T 01/B 62/W 10/N 00/U 10/U SHR 041/078 047/073 049/081 048/074 048/081 051/083 053/085 00/U 12/T 00/B 63/W 10/U 00/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings