945
FXUS61 KCAR 261641
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1241 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach today, cross the area tonight, then
exit across the Maritimes Friday. High pressure will build down
from the north this weekend and remain over the area into early
next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Low pressure crossing Quebec province will draw an occluded
front toward western portions of the forecast area later today.
Aloft, the supporting upper low will also approach.
Precipitable water values increase to around 1.50 inches today.
Rain will occur across the region this afternoon. High
temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 50s north,
to the upper 50s to around 60 Downeast. Have updated mostly to
adjust for current conditions.

Previous Discussion...
As the upper low tracks across Northern Maine tonight, some
additional steady rain is possible across the north beneath the
upper low. The air will not cool much tonight with the clouds
and rain, with lows only in the low 50s. Downeast will just have
some lingering light spotty showers overnight.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The low pressure system will continue to progress across the
region on Friday. QPF models show the system intensifying as the
center moves over the waters. Wrap around moisture should bring
some rain showers across the north, then gradually dissipate by
the evening. The cloud cover and N flow will bring temps into
the low 60s in the north and mid 60s in the south. By Friday
night, clouds should stick around with the wrap around moisture
remaining in the area. This should keep temps in the low 50s for
the night. Decided to include patchy fog across the area due to
the recent rain and calm winds. If weak diurnal cooling occurs,
then chances for fog should decrease. By Saturday, high pressure
should move in from the north, pushing any remaining moisture
into the north with possible light rain showers in the
afternoon. Temps should be in the low 60s. By Saturday night,
high pressure should return with clearing skies and calm winds.
This should produce patchy fog and temps in the upper 40s.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is expected to remain in the area through the
beginning of the week. The 925mb temps and upper air soundings
show the upper level ridge piping warm air into the region
Sunday a Monday with temps reaching into the low 70s. Temps
should start to cool by mid week with the approach of the next
system as a cold front. Extend guidance is inconsistent with the
timing of the front and the amount of QPF, most likely depending
on the track of any tropical moisture next week.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, this afternoon through
tonight with rain and patchy fog. Southeast/south winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to around 20 knots today. South/southeast
winds around 10 knots, becoming south/southwest tonight.

SHORT TERM: Fri: MVFR north, conditions improving to VFR at Downeast
terminals. N winds 5 to 10 kts.

Fri night: Conditions improving to VFR across all terminals. N
wind around 5 kts.

Sat: Mostly VFR. Brief -SHRA possible across northern terminals.
N wind. Winds light and variable.

Saturday night...VFR conditions across all terminals, though
brief IFR possible at any terminals which saw rain on Sat. Winds
light and variable.

Sun - Mon: VFR across all terminals. Winds NW to N.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this
afternoon through tonight. Rain and patchy fog this afternoon
into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA criteria
through the end of the week and into the weekend. Winds may
briefly gust to around 20 kts Thursday night. Rain and patchy
fog could limit visibility Thursday night into early Friday
morning.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Norcross/LaFlash
Marine...Norcross/LaFlash