Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
288 FXUS61 KCAR 251506 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1106 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today. Low pressure will approach tonight and Thursday and cross the area Thursday night. The low will continue to our southeast on Friday. High pressure will build down from the north over the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... High pressure centered near Labrador will remain ridged across the region today. At the same time, low pressure tracking from the Great Lakes toward western Quebec province will draw a warm front toward New England. A disturbance in advance of the upper level trof across the Great Lakes will also approach the region today. Generally expect mostly cloudy/cloudy skies across the forecast area today. However, showers on the leading edge of warm advection with additional support from the approaching disturbance will reach northwest and west-central portions of the forecast area. Have included isolated showers for both these areas. The showers should weaken while moving east into the ridging across the remainder of the forecast area. High temperatures today will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s north, to the lower 60s Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures, clouds and shower chances. Previous Discussion... This evening after sunset expecting showers to develop in response to a weak shortwave lifting NE ahead of the warm front. This will be the first measurable rainfall in 16 days across the CWA. Showers will increase from W to E throughout the overnight into the morning as the vertically stacked low tracks E in Quebec. Temperatures will fall back into the upper 40s to low 50s with some patchy to areas of fog possible along with the increasing boundary layer moisture. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure cascading southeastward over the east side of a steep ridge in Central Canada will spread rain into the area from west to east Thursday morning. High pressure over the Maritimes ridging south into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic coast will channel moisture in from the southeast. Strong upper level dynamics including divergence aloft ahead of the upper low dropping down from Hudson Bay will support the lift and rainfall. Rain will continue across the area Thursday afternoon as the low continues to slide in from the northwest. The low, both surface and aloft, will cross the region Thursday night from northwest to southeast. Rain may diminish to showers across southern parts of the area Thursday night, but continue over the north supported by moisture wrapping back from the east and a deformation field aloft. Low pressure will continue to the southeast on Friday tracking to a position south of Nova Scotia Friday afternoon. Showers and some drizzle will linger over the area, mainly across the north on Friday, from moisture wrapping in from the Maritimes behind the low. Otherwise, Friday will be mostly cloudy, with some breaks of sunshine possible in the afternoon as drier air begins to filter down from the north. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will continue away to the southeast, south of Nova Scotia, Friday night as the ridging in Central Canada pushes east supporting surface high pressure that will build down from the north. This will bring partial clearing Friday night into Saturday followed by a mostly sunny and milder Sunday. High pressure will continue to build down across the area Monday into Tuesday bringing a continuation of mild and dry weather. Highs Sunday through early next week will generally be in the upper 60s to near 70. As mid-week approaches, the ridge over the Northeast may begin to break down and move away to the east. This may allow a trough crossing through Central Canada to push a frontal system east into our area with a chance for showers Tuesday night or Wednesday. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Isolated showers possible across northwest and west-central areas. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, tonight with increasing shower chances. East/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots today. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. SHORT TERM: Thursday...IFR. Southeast wind. Thursday night...IFR north, IFR improving to MVFR south. SE wind. Friday...MVFR north. VFR south. NE wind. Friday night...MVFR to VFR north. VFR south. N wind. Saturday...VFR. N wind. Saturday night...VFR. Possibly locally dropping to IFR in fog northern valleys. Sunday...VFR. SW to W wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Isolated/scattered showers along with areas of fog tonight. SHORT TERM: A few gusts to 25 kt out of the southeast are possible Thursday evening ahead of low pressure and from the north Saturday morning behind low pressure. Otherwise, wind and seas should remain below SCA through late week into the weekend. Rain may limit vsby Thursday into Thursday evening. Otherwise, vsby should be good. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Sinko Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer Marine...Norcross/Bloomer