Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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245 FXUS61 KCLE 221746 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across the area today with a cold front pushing east across the region tonight into Monday. A series of disturbances will cross the area through Wednesday before high pressure returns by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 930 AM EDT Update... Much of the fog has begun to dissipate and ceilings have begun to rise this morning, with the isolated exception in Crawford County PA where a bit of fog lingers, but should lift shortly. Aside from slightly adjusting temperatures to reflect current observations, the remainder of the forecast is unchanged. 630 AM EDT Update... Fog has expanded across interior NW PA so have issued a Dense Fog Advisory that will expire at 13Z/9 AM. Otherwise, no changes needed with this update. Previous Discussion... A ridge will briefly build over the area this morning into this afternoon before exiting to the east by this evening. Light winds, low level moisture, and clear skies will most likely allow fog/low stratus to spread east across NW PA and possible into extreme NE OH during the pre-dawn and early morning hours. Patchy to areas of dense fog are possible so can`t rule out a Special Weather Statement and/or Dense Fog Advisory for few hours this morning. Any fog should lift by mid- morning. Low pressure will track across lower Michigan this afternoon into this evening, lifting a warm front into the CWA with a cold front entering the CWA from the west tonight. PoPs increase this evening into tonight, although there may be quite a bit of dry air at the surface so precip may struggle to reach the surface at the onset. Most locations will likely see at least a brief period of showers and possibly thunderstorms overnight into early Monday. As stated in previous discussions, the frontal passage will be diurnally unfavorable so the severe weather risk is low. The low and cold front will slow over the eastern half of the area Monday, resulting in continued shower and thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the near term period. Despite this system delivering the first widespread rain chances to the CWA in quite some time, it certainty won`t be a drought-buster; QPF through early Monday evening is under half an inch. Today will be the last hot day for the foreseeable future with highs in the 80s anticipated. A few spots west of I-71 might even touch 90 degrees this afternoon. Tonight`s lows will be in the low to mid 60s. A cooler but more seasonable temperature pattern develops for Monday with highs only reaching the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast period continues to signal the most sustained period with rainfall all month. Unfortunately, the rain during the period will not be a drought buster, but will at least curb the drought from getting substantially worse for at bit. Rain will be scattered in coverage on Monday night, as a front will straddle the forecast area with some energy approaching from the west. The main rain show will be on Tuesday as the main shortwave trough approaches aloft and a low pressure system lifts northeast along the front and through the forecast area. Have a large area of categorical PoPs at some point on Tuesday or Tuesday night. The evolution of the main upper trough across the Great Lakes region is slower this morning and it appears the the main trough axis won`t enter the local area until Wednesday evening, as the energy of this feature splits east and south. Until this feature escorts the final cold front through the area, there will be some residual rain chances on Wednesday, especially east. Temperatures through the period appear to be back toward seasonal averages in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... There remains fairly low confidence in the late week forecast, given several closed upper low features across the eastern two-thirds of the United States with large spread in placement depending on the extended guidance member. While the entire forecast period has just marginally higher PoPs (into the 20% range) due to the range of guidance and a slower progression of the eastern low that has increased rain chances for Wednesday, as mentioned above, believe that most of the forecast period will likely end up being dry. An upper ridge will eventually emerge across the region and allow for dry and seasonable conditions. Toward the weekend, there will be some monitoring for potential impacts to the synoptic pattern due to a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... VFR conditions are expected to continue into the evening hours before the chance of showers begins to spread west to east ahead of an approaching cold front tonight. Surface conditions across the area will start out rather dry, making it difficult for visibilities and ceilings to diminish below VFR conditions. However, once showers become well established and low level moisten, expect ceilings and visibilities to drop to MVFR, possibly IFR in the heaviest showers. Along the cold front moving east Monday morning, ceilings are forecast to fall to high-end IFR for many of the terminals. Thunder cannot be ruled out, especially for western terminals, but given the diurnally unfavorable environment, opted to only include VCTS to western terminals. Conditions will gradually dry out behind the cold front, but ceilings of 1500-2500 feet are expected to linger through the period. Winds this afternoon west of I71 are from the southwest at 5-10 knots as a warm front lifts north of the area, with light and variable winds elsewhere. A lake breeze is trying to become established in areas of weaker winds along and east of I71, likely impacting KCLE and KERI in the coming hours. Tonight, winds become light and variable. These winds will gradually become northwesterly at 5-10 knots on Monday behind the cold front moving across the area. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms and low ceilings tonight into Monday. Non- VFR likely Monday night through Tuesday in showers and thunderstorms and low ceilings. Non-VFR conditions may linger through Wednesday. && .MARINE... A ridge rebuilding into the region today will support offshore flow before easterly winds and a push of onshore northeasterly winds develop for the late afternoon and evening. For tonight, a cold front will approach the lake from the west and offshore flow will return. There will be a window with 10 to 15 knot winds over the eastern portion of the lake late tonight into Monday. The front will cross the lake by Monday afternoon but will retrograde west on Monday night as a low pressure system will move northeast along the front for Tuesday. North to northwest flow will be favored behind the front and the low and southerly flow will be favored east of the front and southeast of the low. The low will pull the front fully across the lake for Wednesday and westerly flow will build and some higher waves are possible in the eastern and central basins. High pressure will build into the region and allow for northeast flow for Thursday and Friday. Overall, the probability for a marine headline is low but there will be periods of unpleasant conditions with 2 to 3 ft waves and rain chances early in the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maines NEAR TERM...Campbell/Maines SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Sefcovic