Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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868 FXUS64 KCRP 230913 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 413 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The mid level ridge that is currently over the region is expected to shift eastwards early next week concurrently with a mid to upper level trough digging into the Central Plains. Guidance has come into agreement with a front stalling to the north around the Hill Country. This will allow for some moisture to advect into the region with the accompaniment of the sea breeze during the afternoon hours which will allow for a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms. This should remain mostly in check today thanks due to the influence of the ridge though highest chances will be in the Victoria Crossroads. With the front sagging a little further south tomorrow rain chances will increase to a medium chance along the Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads. Highs will generally be in the 90s across the region cooling into the 70s overnight. Thanks to the influx of moisture in the region there will also be a minor to moderate risk for heat stress related impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A cut off low will develop over the Central Plains by the middle of the week which will help push a cold front across Texas. Yes! A cold front in September! Now, we need to remember that cold fronts that make their way to South Texas in September are not going to bring a significant temperature drop. What we will see is an medium chance of showers and thunderstorms as the front moves over the area with moderate instability and abundant moisture (PWATs around 2.0 inches). Behind the front, we will notice only a slight temperature drop but with drier air moving in, we will notice a drop in the heat index values so our days will feel a lot more comfortable. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms with signs of organization over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Conditions are favorable for development and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form over the next few days. NHC has given this a 70% chance of development over the next 2 days and a 90% chance of development over the next 7 days. While no direct impacts are expected for South Texas, increased swells could lead to an increased risk of dangerous rip currents and minor coastal flooding by late this week. Please keep up with this forecast at hurricanes.gov. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Overall thinking remains the same with MVFR VSBYs briefly occurring from ALI to VCT due to patchy fog, and MVFR CIGs across COT early Monday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will prevail across S TX through Monday evening. Surface winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming east to southeast around 10KT during the day Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow over the next few days will become weak at times during the night-time hours accompanied by a low to moderate chance for showers. Winds will shift to north later this week and increase in response to a cold front and a developing tropical cyclone. This could lead to brief Small Craft Advisory and increased swell late this week. There is low to moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more information on tropical cyclone development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 76 91 75 / 20 10 40 20 Victoria 94 74 94 72 / 40 10 50 20 Laredo 95 75 94 76 / 0 0 20 20 Alice 94 74 93 74 / 20 0 40 20 Rockport 92 79 92 76 / 30 10 40 30 Cotulla 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 20 30 Kingsville 93 76 92 74 / 20 0 40 20 Navy Corpus 89 80 88 79 / 20 20 50 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP/92 LONG TERM....LS/77 AVIATION...TE