418
FXUS64 KCRP 311122
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

-Low to medium chance for strong to severe thunderstorms today and
Saturday

-Heat Advisory in effect from 1 PM through 7 PM for portions of
 the Coastal Bend and Brush Country

are expected A cluster of thunderstorms are currently moving through
Central Texas and are tracking southeast towards the coast. These
storms have the potential to be severe in nature with large hail,
damaging winds, and localized heavy rains being the main threats. An
isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out. This will be
expected mainly in the Victoria Crossroads and portions of the
Coastal Plains.

Skies will be partly cloudy which could allow for the atmosphere to
recharge this afternoon which could lead to another round of
thunderstorms. This was represented with low to medium POPs over the
area. Models have been all over the place with timing so confidence
will be low in that regard. SPC has the northern portions of the
Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads in a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5) and the areas just to the south of that in a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5). Portions of the Victoria Crossroads will be in a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall (at least 5% of flash flooding).
Guidance is trending in a similar setup for Saturday as well with
strong to severe storms though it should be isolated over the
Victoria Crossroads. This will need to be closely monitored in
future forecast cycles.

Temperatures will remain on the warmer side with highs around 90-100
degrees across the area. Along the Coastal Bend and Brush Country
with the combination of low to upper 70s dew points will lead to
heat indices up to 114 possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Extreme heat related impacts continue this weekend
  through the middle of next week.

Low end rain chances (<20%) will continue into Saturday night as yet
another mid-level shortwave trough tracks near the region. Most of
the energy in association to this next passing disturbance is likely
to stay north of the area, therefore the low end PoPs. Aside from
this, expect drier conditions as we head into the latter part of the
weekend into next week as a mid to upper level ridge over Mexico
takes a stronger hold. The next longwave trough is progged to dig
into the Northern Plains around mid to late week pushing a surface
cold front across the state late in the week, but not much of an
impact is anticipated for our area as the front is likely to stall
before reaching the CWA.

Increasingly hotter temperatures are in store Sunday through
Wednesday next week with highs climbing to 105 or higher over
portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. The combination
of very high temperatures and humid conditions will lead to heat
index values in the 110-115 degrees range along with a Moderate to
Extreme HeatRisk levels. Periods of Heat Advisory or even Warning
are possible, especially Monday through Wednesday. Please use
caution if you are planning outdoor activities. Remember to protect
yourself by wearing light colored clothing, take frequent breaks and
drink plenty of water. And don`t forget your pets!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF cycle with
MVFR conditions possible early and late within this TAF cycle.
There is a high chance for showers and thunderstorms this morning
across VCT as a cluster of thunderstorms have held together all
night moving southward from North Texas. Rain chances will
decrease this morning with another low chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Due to high uncertainty of location
and coverage, did not include in the forecast at this time. Winds
will pick up this morning and remain gusty through the afternoon
before eventually decreasing to near 12 knots after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Moderate to strong onshore flow will prevail through this
afternoon before becoming generally moderate. This is expected to
persist tonight through early next week, with occasional winds to
strong levels over the southern bays and nearshore waters. There
is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  80  93  82 /  20  30  10  10
Victoria          92  77  93  78 /  30  30  30  10
Laredo           102  80 102  79 /  20  20   0  10
Alice             96  79  97  80 /  20  30  10  10
Rockport          90  81  90  82 /  20  20  10  10
Cotulla          101  80 101  80 /  20  30  10  20
Kingsville        95  80  95  81 /  10  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       91  83  91  82 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ229-230-239>243-342-343.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ231-
     232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...JCP/84