Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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180 FXUS64 KCRP 221112 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 612 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a fairly active pattern as the upper level ridge that has been in place is being nudged east by a digging trough across the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed across the northern portions of the state. This boundary will sag south as we head into the work week, eventually stalling north of us Monday afternoon. Rain chances will be very low today. A few CAMS want to develop some isolated activity through the day. However, much drier air will filter into the mid levels which will help keep us dry. Low level moisture trapped beneath this drier air will help promote another round of fog tonight across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads as winds become light overnight. Moisture creeps back into the area on Monday so we will see PoPs jump back into the 20-30% range across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. High temps today and tomorrow will settle into the low to mid 90s along with heat indices around 100-105 degrees. This will warrant a minor to moderate heat risk. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A mid level ridge will continue to be eroded as a mid to upper level trough digs into the Texas. The previous few nights guidance, had the front stalling and dissipating before it reaches the region. There are now a few different solutions for this front, with some depicting it reaching South Texas as the trough digs further south. Given the variability in the guidance confidence will remain low. We can still expect some precipitation from this with moisture pooling into the region with the front stalling to the north Monday in combination with the sea breeze through Thursday. A secondary surge of high pressure will dry things out towards the end of the week. Regardless of the result of the front the area will likely still see temperatures in the remaining in the 90s. With the presence of the moisture in the region, a Minor to Moderate risk for heat related impacts will effect South Texas through the end of the week. The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a broad area of low pressure to form in the northwestern Caribbean Sea over the next few days (HIGH 70%). This system is not expected to directly impact South Texas though we could potentially see some minor impacts such as hazardous marine conditions, minor coastal flooding, and increased rip currents. Continue to check back for future updates and for more information visit hurricanes.gov. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 MVFR conditions have been slow to develop this morning with ALI just now seeing some patchy fog develop. With light winds in place, we still have a window over the next couple of hours for fog and low level stratus to settle in. VFR prevail by 14/15Z. Southeasterly winds will increase through the day with gusts around 20 knots possible. Winds will become light once again overnight which may lead to another round of MVFR conditions, mainly at ALI/VCT, closer to sunrise Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue into the work week. Isolated showers will be possible this morning although coverage is expected to be less than the last couple of mornings. The combination of light winds and sufficient low level moisture may lead to tropical funnel development this morning. Most of these funnel clouds will be short lived and typically do not touch the ground. However, you should be prepared to seek shelter in the event a funnel does reach the ground. Weak to moderate at the start of the week will increase to more moderate levels late in the work week. Low to moderate rain chances are expected through the week as an upper level disturbance approaches. Swell heights are expected to increase the latter half of the week as a disturbance moves into the Gulf of Mexico. These factors could lead to a brief period Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 76 91 76 / 10 0 20 10 Victoria 94 74 94 73 / 10 0 30 10 Laredo 95 75 95 74 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 94 74 94 73 / 10 0 20 0 Rockport 92 79 92 78 / 10 0 30 10 Cotulla 97 75 96 75 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 92 76 92 75 / 10 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 88 80 88 79 / 10 10 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...TC/95