596
FNUS28 KWNS 192147
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected
across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during
the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given
increasingly receptive fuels across the region.

...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western
CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest
midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around
Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale
trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a
dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a
result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally
critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive
fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable
large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude
west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure
gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical
conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this
time.

By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series
of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and
southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more
than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at
this time.

..Weinman.. 05/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$