Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
348 ACUS48 KWNS 260851 SWOD48 SPC AC 260849 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit more amplified. It appears that this may include modest mid-level troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend, upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Shorter wavelength developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period due to sizable model spread. Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability, associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the Pecos Valley. As mid-level heights fall to the south of the initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat across the adjacent plains. However, due to generally low predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024