348
ACUS48 KWNS 260851
SWOD48
SPC AC 260849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper
troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the
Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming
work week.  As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes
of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while
flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit
more amplified.  It appears that this may include modest mid-level
troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend,
upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies
through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley.  Shorter wavelength
developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period
due to sizable model spread.

Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability,
associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to
the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the
Pecos Valley.  As mid-level heights fall to the south of the
initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the
northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms
developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could
evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat
across the adjacent plains.  However, due to generally low
predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at
less than 15 percent.

..Kerr.. 05/26/2024