Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
417 FXXX12 KWNP 261231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Sep 26 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was moderate, with an M1.3/1f flare from Region 3828 (S11W55, Hax/alpha) at 25/2312 UTC. Region 3836 (S10E38, Dai/beta-gamma) produced a long duration C9.6 flare at 25/1555 UTC. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 3836. Slight growth was observed in Region 3833 (N22W74, Dro/beta-gamma). Region 3837 (S11W26, Axx/alpha) was numbered today. The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares likely and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares on 26-28 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 26 Sep with a chance for high levels on 27-28 Sep due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels on 26-28 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed decreased from 550ish to 400 km/s. Total field decreased from 10-4 nT while the Bz component was between +8/-10 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... A glancing blow from the 22 Sep CME is still forecasted to cause some further enhancement in the solar wind on 26 Sep. A gradual recovery to nominal levels is expected over 27-28 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS activity. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) storming, with a chance for G2 (Moderate), on 26 Sep due to persistent HSS activity combined with a possible later arrival of the 22 Sep CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 27 Sep followed by mostly quiet conditions on 28 Sep.