322
FXUS63 KDMX 311054
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
554 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers this morning will restrengthen this afternoon
  with non-severe thunderstorms moving across the area.

- Quiet Saturday with showers and storms possible Sunday into Monday.

- More robust system Tuesday into Wednesday could be our next
  chance for strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Convection in western Iowa fizzled out overnight with a few spotty,
slow moving showers lingering early this morning. Meanwhile, a cold
front sits northwest of the area, across South Dakota into
Nebraska with a line of convection continuing to bubble early
this morning. This will pass into Iowa later this morning,
moving across the area through the afternoon and evening. With
diurnal heating as support, showers will strengthen and become
more widespread. Even so, the severe risk today remains low with
very little instability to work with. Soundings do continue to
show fairly dry low levels, so it is possible that some
stronger gusts develop with shower and storm activity this
afternoon.

A few showers may linger in eastern Iowa on Saturday morning,
but otherwise it should be a nice day with temperatures nearing
80 degrees. By Sunday the next wave moving though the zonal
upper air pattern makes its way towards Iowa. Models are
initially rather diffuse with the boundary before the system
better organized later Sunday. As such, it is possible that most
of Sunday would be dry before precipitation develops later in
the day but confidence in the details is low at this time. The
wave looks to pass across the area later Sunday into Monday.
There is a little more instability to work with in this system
however shear still remains fairly modest. So while a few
stronger storms are possible, as it currently stands the severe
chance looks to remain low in Iowa.

A more robust system is still on track for Tuesday into
Wednesday. While timing differences still exist between the Euro
and GFS, there is still a signal in both for a more wrapped up
system with greater instability up into the area. There is some
indication that better shear may lag the instability a bit.
While details are still vague, this system will likely be the
next opportunity for strong to severe storms across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Scattered showers will slowly move across the area through the
day with thunderstorms possible by this afternoon as they
strengthen. This system is very slow moving, so impacts will be
prolonged as showers linger through the overnight and finally
start to push off to the east on Saturday morning. Precipitation
will be most widespread north at KFOD/KMCW with less confidence
in impacts further south at KDSM/KALO/KOTM. Due to the
scattered nature of the precipitation, pinning down the most
likely window is a challenge. Expect adjustments as trends are
realized.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff