Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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985 FXUS63 KDVN 261902 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 202 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for rain tomorrow are even lower as winds look to be the main local impact from Helene. - Quiet weather pattern expected in the long term. -Temperatures this weekend will be warm by late September standards and with a slight increase in humidity may feel a tad more sticky. Cold front beginning of the week will clear out humidity and lead to more seasonable temps. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Helene is expected to merge with the upper level low south and east of the area through tomorrow afternoon. Guidance has continued the trend for keeping the area dry tomorrow. As such, have removed pops from across the east tomorrow. What will be more noticeable are increasing clouds along with gusty winds. Guidance has a near record low sfc pressure just south of us tomorrow. Have increased winds, but kept them below wind adv criteria. Later shifts will need to keep an eye on this as we may see even stronger winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 To start the period, the closed low to our southeast eventually merges with what should be post tropical Helene. This should stay south and east of the area. At the same time, a ridge is expected to build into our area. This will lead to temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s this weekend. Moisture will also build with this and dewpoints in the low 60s are possible Sunday into Monday. Monday night into Tuesday a cold front is expected to swing through the area, changing the airmass to a more fall-like airmass for next week. Dewpoints in the 40s and highs in the 60s look likely Tuesday on next week. Did bring winds up in the extended. Strong low pressure (remains of Helene) will be just south of the area. This will lead to windy conditions until the low fills/starts to move east. Looking at precip chances, Friday night models continue to keep the precip south and east of the area. GEFS and EPS struggle to bring any QPF into the CWA. Will continue the trend of lowering/removing pops for Friday night. Monday night the front looks to have good sfc convergence as it sweeps through the area. Models have a dearth of low level moisture and at this time have no QPF. The ensemble systems show the same thing as well. I do think that this may change, and some low pops may be added later. Nonetheless, none of these `chances` for rain will be all that impactful if they were to occur. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. High clouds move in later in the period as winds increase locally. Some gusts near 30kts are possible late in the period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Gibbs