091
FXUS63 KDVN 271952
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
252 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures this weekend will be warm by late September
  standards and it will become more humid.

- A return to cooler, more seasonable weather is forecast for
  the first few days of October behind a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

The remnants of "Helene" was located 125 miles southeast of
Louisville, KY at 2 pm. A large and impressive cloud shield had
spread all the way into the DVN forecast area. High cloudiness
was across our area with the thickest clouds in our southeast
counties. The northwest edge of the rain shield was staying just
to our southeast and dry air was winning out. However, CAM`s
show the potential for this edge to make it into parts of
Bureau, Putnam, and McDonough counties overnight. Pops are only
about 20-30 percent with only very light amounts. Lows tonight
will range from the mid 50s nw to the lower 60s se.

On Saturday, the remnants in the OH Valley will continue to
weaken so the rain area will shrink, so much of the day looks
dry for the forecast area. High clouds will also gradually thin
out as the day progresses with highs in the lower 80s nw to the
mid 70s se.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

A cold front will move through the Midwest
Monday into Tuesday AM, ushering in a more fall-like airmass.
Highs in the 60s/lower 70s and lows in the 40s/50s are forecast
for Tuesday and Wednesday, right on schedule as we turn the
calendar to October!

The extended period of abnormally dry conditions will continue
through at least this upcoming Thursday with high pressure
building in behind the early week cold front. The NBM is showing
dry conditions through Friday, and the GEFS and EPS have very
low probabilities for measurable rainfall through this same period
(less than 20% for most locations).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conds with high cloudiness as the remnants of "Helene"
pushes into the OH Valley and stalls. Northeast winds will be
gusting to 25 to 30 kts especially at KBRL and KMLI. Have also
added LLWS at KMLI for tonight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase/Uttech
AVIATION...Haase