Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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936 ACUS01 KWNS 221240 SWODY1 SPC AC 221238 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley... An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the southern Great Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1 inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024 $$