382
ACUS01 KWNS 280100
SWODY1
SPC AC 280059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
TEXAS...THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening into
tonight across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast, and Mid
Atlantic.

...OK/TX...
Isolated supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central
into northeast TX. Strong to extreme instability and favorable
deep-layer shear will continue to support a threat of hail (possibly
in excess of 2 inches in diameter), along with localized severe
gusts. The ongoing discrete supercell activity will likely tend to
decrease with time later tonight, as MLCINH begins to increase with
the onset of nocturnal cooling.

Farther south, it remains possible that storm clusters currently
over northern Mexico will move into parts of south-central into deep
south TX later tonight, posing an isolated threat of hail and severe
gusts before weakening. See MCD 1027 for more information.

Overnight, elevated convection may develop across parts of north TX
into OK, near/north of a nearly stationary surface boundary. The
coverage and organization of this late development remains
uncertain, but moderate to strong elevated buoyancy will support at
least isolated hail with the strongest storms.

...South AL/GA into north FL and the FL Peninsula...
Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are ongoing this
evening across parts of south AL/GA and extreme north FL. Rich
low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear
will continue to support some threat for damaging wind and hail for
much of the evening as storms spread southeastward. See MCD 1026 for
more information.

...Parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast...
Widely scattered storms are expected to continue through the evening
from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, as a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across the region. Favorable
low-level and deep-layer shear will continue to support some threat
for isolated hail and damaging wind and perhaps a tornado, before
storm coverage and intensity wanes later tonight. See MCD 1025 for
more information.

..Dean.. 05/28/2024

$$