185
ACUS02 KWNS 021721
SWODY2
SPC AC 021719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the
Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on
Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may
become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity,
where a swath of damaging gusts is possible.

...Synopsis...

A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is
evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are
expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be
ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower
MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a
low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central
U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will
quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs
associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most
likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO
Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe
convection into the afternoon/evening.

...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley...

Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding
thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in
association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the
ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist
(upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable
environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of
storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of
mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping
low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid
modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible.

The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may
persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley.
Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and
unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops,
some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS
and southeast LA.

...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan...

Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley
vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker
compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist
and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters
capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some
guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the
exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a
relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of
stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

...Central TX...

A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the
afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should
remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will
encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell
development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong
gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio
Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong
gusts and hail also may accompany this activity.

..Leitman.. 06/02/2024

$$