155
FXUS63 KEAX 270736
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
236 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Monday but
  no hazardous weather expected the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Early this morning, Hurricane Helene has made landfall and the 500mb
low associated with this system is located over southern Georgia.
Another 500mb low is located near the AR/TN/MS border. Today these
two features will engage in the Fujiwhara effect as they do their
upper level dance across the lower Ohio River and Tennessee River
Valleys until eventually merging to form one 500mb low over the
Tennessee River Valley. The rain shield associated with these system
will drift back towards the local forecast area today however, it
will do little bit perhaps clip our extreme southeastern CWA with a
few light showers. Cloud cover will over spread the area from east
to west leading to cooler highs in the mid 70s across central
Missouri to near 80 across western Missouri and eastern Kansas. This
upper level system will move very little through the weekend but
will weaken becoming less of a player for the local weather.
However, what will become more of a player is a upper level ridge of
high pressure over the southwestern CONUS and eastern Rockies. This
feature will creep eastward through the weekend leading to slightly
warmer temps with highs achieving the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Monday, the aforementioned upper level ridge axis will move directly
over the area providing the warmest day of the forecast period with
highs in the low to mid 80s. Monday night, a upper level trough will
move across the northern Plains into the extreme Upper Midwest
flattening the upper level ridge and force a cold front through the
area. The frontal passage will be dry however, modest cold air
advection behind this front late Monday night into Tuesday will
bring a cooler day with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A quick
moving area of surface high pressure will move through Tuesday night
bringing some of the coolest air of the season with lows dropping
into the low 40s to near 50. WAA should get quickly underway behind
the departing surface high Wednesday allowing highs to return to the
70s. Continued WAA under zonal flow aloft on Thursday will bring
back warm condition with highs reaching the upper 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Forecast consensus is lowering probabilities of BR across the
region. Highest chances remain north of the KC terminals
including STJ which may see some VIS reductions. BR will likely
be contained in valleys and/or near large bodies of water.

After sunrise VFR conditions return light winds overnight become
more northerly accelerating to 12-15 knots with gusts around 20
knots during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Pesel