057
FXUS63 KEAX 270445
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm through the weekend, 5 to 10 degrees above normal each day.

- Dry through the weekend for most. Far remnants from Helene may
  skirt the northern Ozark Plateau.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The eastern H500 trough remains cutoff over the lower Ohio valley,
with Hurricane Helene making landfall tonight along the Florida
Panhandle Coast. Conditions will remain rather quiet and calm for
our region as broad ridging holds over the west-southwest CONUS.
Through Friday morning, Hurricane Helene will merge with the eastern
trough, lifting quickly to the north across the eastern CONUS,
bringing record rainfall to portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and
into Tennessee along the Appalachian Mountains. The rain shield will
spread from the east coast to eastern Missouri by midday Friday,
with some light precipitation chances reaching as far west as
central Missouri and the northern Ozark Plateau. Trends from the
HREF Ensemble keep the majority of precip over the east-southeastern
quarter of Missouri. Even looking at the 75th to 90th percentiles
for amounts, keeps the vast majority of western Missouri and
northwestern Missouri dry.

Through the weekend, temperatures will warm above normal, as the
central Plains into the upper Midwest is opened to persistent
southwesterly flow as brief steep ridging sets up off the
southwestern CONUS to the western Great Lakes. Highs each afternoon,
Saturday and Sunday will reach the lower to mid 80s.

An open mid-level short wave trough will sweep along the US/CAN
border Monday night into Tuesday. This will usher in more seasonable
temperatures behind a dry cold frontal passage for Tuesday. This
will be short lived as southerly boundary layer flow re-establishes
into Wednesday under broad weak upper ridging spread across much of
the country. Highs will be back in the upper 70s to lower 80s for
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Forecast consensus is lowering probabilities of BR across the
region. Highest chances remain north of the KC terminals
including STJ which may see some VIS reductions. BR will likely
be contained in valleys and/or near large bodies of water.

After sunrise VFR conditions return light winds overnight become
more northerly accelerating to 12-15 knots with gusts around 20
knots during the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Pesel