Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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815 FXUS63 KEAX 242054 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 354 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms are possible this afternoon into evening. A strong storm or two are possible through the early evening hours with hail and gusty winds being the main threats. - Drier conditions are expected Wednesday into daylight hours on Thursday. - Cut off upper level low will bring wrap around moisture into the region this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Interesting weather pattern setting up across the central US with an amplified ridge across the western US and deepening trough across the central US as strong upper level jet streak dives south on the backside of the trough. Short wave across western Iowa is expected to continue to shift south through the late afternoon/evening. Weakly unstable atmosphere ahead of the short wave with ML CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg could be enough to support a few isolated to scattered storms through the late afternoon into the evening hours. Instability is mainly a response from steep lapse rates from the near surface layer to 650 mb. The low topped convection will have minimal amounts of speed shear, but cyclonic curvature may be enough to lead to a strong storm or two through the evening hours with gusty winds or small hail being the main threats. This activity should shift south through the evening hours and weaken after sunset. Drier conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday as upper ridge tries to expand east; however, the deepening trough across the Central US becomes cutoff from the flow and lingers across the Mississippi Valley. The remnants of Helene becomes wrapped up in the trough across the central US this weekend bringing additional moisture into the system and additional chances for precipitation wrapping back into the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible along a a line from north KC to Kirksville ~22-24Z. These storms are exprected to shift south and weaken this evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...BT