Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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927 FXUS64 KEPZ 210600 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1200 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 140 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms east of El Paso tonight, then dry and cooler weather this weekend. Temperatures will be closer to normal for late September next week with lowland highs in the upper eighties and slight rain chances east of the Rio Grande. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Strong southwest flow aloft over the region today ahead of a Pacific low centered over southern California. Plume of Gulf moisture moving up out of Chihuahua across west Texas and south- central New Mexico will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to parts of Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties later tonight. Overall, rain amounts look to be light as these showers will move to the northeast fairly quickly. Rain chances will linger into the early Saturday morning hours. Upper low progresses eastward on Saturday crossing the Southern Rockies to our north and flushing out moisture to the east. This push of westerlies will cool us down a few degrees and possibly keep El Paso`s high in the upper 80s on Sunday. This would be right near normal for late September. Surface winds shift back to the east on Monday as high pressure builds in across the Southern Plains behind the exiting low. This will allow for a modest return of moisture to the area, especially east of the Rio Grande valley. Main question regarding next week`s weather forecast centers around the strength and position of a break off polar jet streak over the High Plains and how far south that developing upper low can dive Tuesday/Wednesday. Good confidence in high pressure over the Southwest US, but uncertainty lies in whether the El Paso forecast area will be more under the influence of the former low or latter high. If the low ends up resolving stronger than models anticipate, we could expect more rain chances midweek (especially east). If not, ridging flow aloft will likely keep us suppressed. 12Z GFS is the drier solution compared to the 12Z ECMWF, mostly due to the positioning of that developing High Plains low. There are still several GEFS perturbations that break this low off early, but the majority favors a dry scenario for El Paso and vicinity. For now, NBM is keeping rain chances in the forecast for much of the area Tuesday-Thursday, focusing east of the Rio Grande. I`m worried those numbers may decrease in future forecast packages. Something to monitor. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions can be expected through the period. A thin band of showers in the form of virga is ongoing moving from SW to NE from KDMN to KTCS. Hi-res models have been suggesting light showers popping up over KELP and KLRU from around 09Z to around sunrise. The current band of clouds over the area will push west to east tonight becoming SKC by late morning. Breezy winds 15-22G25-32KT should be expected by the mid-afternoon hours tomorrow with dry conditions for terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Elevated fire danger on Saturday, especially across southwestern New Mexico with dry conditions and breezy southwest winds. Wind gusts 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon will result in Excellent smoke ventilation with transport to the northeast. Min RH 15-25%. Even drier on Sunday, though winds will be much lighter. Fuel conditions remain drier than normal for mid-September with drought status still in place. The rest of September looks mostly dry and warm for southwest New Mexico with a few rain chances for LNF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 93 63 89 / 20 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 89 59 85 / 50 20 10 0 Las Cruces 67 89 55 86 / 20 10 0 0 Alamogordo 66 89 54 85 / 30 20 0 0 Cloudcroft 49 66 40 64 / 40 30 0 0 Truth or Consequences 63 84 54 82 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 54 75 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 61 87 51 85 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 81 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 72 91 62 87 / 20 10 0 0 Dell City 68 94 59 88 / 50 20 0 0 Fort Hancock 70 96 62 90 / 50 10 10 0 Loma Linda 65 85 57 81 / 40 10 0 0 Fabens 70 93 59 88 / 30 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 68 89 56 85 / 20 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 70 89 59 85 / 20 10 0 0 Jornada Range 67 87 53 84 / 20 10 0 0 Hatch 66 88 52 86 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 65 89 55 85 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 66 88 54 83 / 30 20 0 0 Mayhill 54 79 45 73 / 40 30 0 0 Mescalero 54 77 44 74 / 50 30 0 0 Timberon 52 76 44 73 / 40 30 0 0 Winston 50 76 42 75 / 10 10 0 0 Hillsboro 59 83 50 82 / 10 10 0 0 Spaceport 63 85 51 83 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 73 41 78 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 54 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 51 82 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 53 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 57 79 49 80 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 58 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 57 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 56 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 55 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher