Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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788 FXUS64 KEPZ 010526 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1126 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Generally dry and hot conditions will continue into next week. Highs over the weekend will be in the 90s to near 100 for the lowlands, but come the middle of next week, the hottest days of the year are likely starting Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Models at least through midweek in good agreement with deterministic and ensemble means. Tonight will see mostly clear skies with similar low temperatures to last night. Dryline will push toward the Rio Grande by morning, however. Early impact in the forecast could be a few storms popping over the Sacs Sat afternoon as that dryline takes some time to retreat east. Some good instability in the moist side of the boundary, so a low end severe storm isn`t out of the question in eastern Otero county. High temperatures tomorrow will approach 100 around ELP and the Lower Rio Grande Valley, with mid to upper 90s for the remainder of the lowlands. A stronger westerly flow sets up for Sun/Mon which will keep moisture east of the area and surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. The weak wave that brings this increased winds will drop highs a degree or two for Sunday compared to Saturday. Little change for Monday, but highs will warm back toward the highs of Saturday which means a few triple figures return for the lowest elevations. Starting Tuesday, an upper low sets up over Northern Baja which then helps a fairly amplified ridge to setup over the Borderland. Hottest days of the year expected come Wednesday and Thursday. H85 temps on both the EC/GFS are around 34C-36C with the ensemble means not much different. This would translate to highs 100-108 for the lowlands. NBM temps only 102/104 Wed/Thu for KELP and these look low, so raised up a degree or two which may still not be enough. One thing that may help keep highs from getting to 108 would be overnight lows will still be falling into the lower to mid 70s and light winds under ridge may prevent full mixing. There is also agreement that there will be some moisture pushing back to the west. Moisture still looks fairly shallow with trajectories not coming off the Gulf of Mexico, but right out of central Mexico. With the extreme heat, could still see some isolated thunderstorms forming over the mountains and pushing onto the lowlands. By Friday, GFS is lifting low into the Four Corners region while the EC lifts it north, but keeps it out in the CA area. EC seems more reasonable given the strength of the ridge. The main impact from these differences will be how hot Friday will be. Still looks like most lowland areas will reach at least 100-105. Again, went above NBM guidance, but may still be not hot enough if that ridge remains in place. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 VMC through forecast period. Shallow moisture intrusion from the east reaching the Rio Grande Valley overnight and shifting surface winds to the SE 130-160 AOB 6 knots. TS activity tomorrow afternoon once again limited to the east of KELP, so no direct terminal impacts expected. Surface winds shifting back to 220-250 at 10-15 knots tomorrow afternoon as dry air returns. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Hot and generally dry conditions through the next 5 days. A couple of storms are possible over the Sacramento Mts Sat afternoon as some moisture briefly pushes in overnight and lingers until mid afternoon before pushing east. Winds will be on the increase for Sunday and Monday with speeds of 15-20 mph expected along with high temperatures over the lowlands around 100 and RH`s of 3-8%. RFTI`s will generally be 4 with some 5`s thrown in around the windiest areas. The hottest days of the year will arrive Wed as a strong upper ridge builds in and highs will reach around 105 for the lowest elevations, but most lowland areas will be right around 100 degrees. These temperatures are expected to continue into the end of the week with some isolated storms possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 68 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 93 62 94 61 / 0 0 30 10 Las Cruces 98 61 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 96 60 96 60 / 0 0 10 0 Cloudcroft 73 48 73 48 / 0 0 20 0 Truth or Consequences 95 62 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 88 57 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 97 56 97 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 94 57 94 55 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 97 66 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 98 61 97 58 / 0 0 30 10 Fort Hancock 100 60 101 60 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 90 61 91 61 / 0 0 10 0 Fabens 99 62 100 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 95 58 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 97 67 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 96 57 96 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 98 57 98 56 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 96 62 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 95 62 95 61 / 0 0 10 0 Mayhill 82 51 85 52 / 10 0 30 10 Mescalero 84 51 84 48 / 0 0 20 0 Timberon 82 50 82 48 / 0 0 20 10 Winston 87 54 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 93 60 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 95 55 95 51 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 89 52 89 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 91 54 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 96 55 95 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 90 57 90 45 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 90 58 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 94 57 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 94 59 95 58 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 94 58 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 89 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher