571
FXUS64 KEPZ 270920
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
320 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Quiet and dry weather conditions with above average warmth
expected through the period. High temperatures today will be the
hottest where temperatures in El Paso could rival the daily
record high of 98 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Wash, rinse, and repeat. Again, no major changes in the forecast
from previous forecast packages with quiet weather conditions and
hot temperatures across far west TX and southern NM over the next
few days.

Strengthening high pressure a aloft will be the main feature
dictating the sensible weather conditions across the Borderland
Region through the period. High pressure will continue building in
across New Mexico through the day, leading to quiet weather
conditions and above average warmth across the desert lowlands.
High temperatures this afternoon will approach daily record
values. The record high temperature for El Paso for today is 98
degrees with 98 degrees currently in the forecast. NBM guidance
has 65% of reaching 98 in El Paso and 50% of reaching 99, which
would surpass the record. The probability of temperatures reaching
100 degrees is not zero, but confidence is low.

A weak and relatively cooler airmass will infiltrate the area this
weekend. Temperatures will come down slightly, but will remain
5-10 degrees above average. By next week, temperatures will
continue to gradually decrease. But no matter what model/ensemble
you look at, temperatures look to remain above the seasonal
average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions with light winds throughout the period expected.
KTCS will see some drainage winds from the NW overnight, but
overall the winds will be variable at most locations during this
next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Upper level high pressure over the region with warm/above average
temperatures and dry conditions will be the theme through the
weekend. Fire weather concerns are LOW to LOW-END ELEVATED each
afternoon, LOW-END ELEVATED for elevations below 7500 ft. High
temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees above the seasonal average
with Min RH values across the desert lowlands/Gila between 10-20
percent and 17-27 percent over the Sacs this afternoon.

Winds will remain light and generally out of east/southeast. Winds
over the mountains will be more terrain influenced, along with
following it`s typical diurnal wind flow regimes. Mixing heights
will range from 8000-13000 feet this afternoon with smoke
ventilation rates of good

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  68  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            91  59  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               98  64  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               96  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               74  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    96  63  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              92  62  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   98  62  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                98  65  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       97  69  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                96  59  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             98  62  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               90  62  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   97  63  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             95  64  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           97  67  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            96  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    99  62  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 96  64  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                94  62  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  85  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                86  53  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 83  52  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  88  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                96  59  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                96  59  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             91  55  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   93  59  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   101  56  96  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               93  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  93  61  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   98  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  96  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           96  61  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               93  63  88  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers