Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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451 FXUS64 KEPZ 221726 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1126 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 430 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Fall arrives today and though the temperatures won`t be Fall like yet, they will be a little cooler. High temperatures today will be near seasonal averages and a little below average on Monday. High temperatures for the rest of the coming week will run at or a few degrees above average. We will have dry conditions today and a slight chance for rain for Monday and Tuesday, but then the dry weather returns as we finish out the coming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 As Fall arrives this morning, we will see some cooler weather today and tomorrow. The temperatures won`t be Fall like with highs in the 80`s, but hey we`ll take any cooling we can get. What will be nice is that the low temperatures will also drop several degrees and that will feel nice each morning. High temperatures today will be near average and on Monday on the back side of a back door front, we will see high temperatures actually a few degrees below average. Now don`t break out you pumpkin spice lattes and all your sweaters. By Tuesday of this week, upper level high pressure will begin to push into the region and that will bump our high temperatures up a few degrees. By the end of the week our high temperatures will creep a few degrees above average. That means many lowland locations will be near or a little above 90 for high temperatures. The good news is that low temperatures will continue to be in the 50`s and 60`s in the lowlands and even in the 40`s in area mountains. Chances for rain will be limited this week. Before the upper level ridge completely moves into the area we will see a slight chance for rain on Monday and Tuesday for locations east of the Rio Grande. Once the upper level ridge is centered over the region by mid week, we will be hard pressed to see any rain chances. The upper level ridge looks to weaken by the end of the week, but things look to stay warm and dry as we head into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VMC through forecast period. Surface winds quite light and variable AOB 06 knots today. FROPA after sunset tonight, first at KELP around 02Z and then KDMN by 05Z. East flow 050-080 at 06-12 knots, with higher gusts along mountain west slopes overnight. Skies mostly SKC today, with FEW-SCT040 developing Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 We will be mostly dry this week. Winds today will come around to the east or southeast and we may see some low end gusty winds on the east slopes of area mountains. For Monday through much of this week, our winds will be from the south or southeast, but stay well below critical levels. We will be dry today, there is a slight chance for rain on Monday and Tuesday, for locations east of the Rio Grande but the rest of the coming week we will stay dry. Min RH`s today will be in the teens in the lowlands and above 20% in area mountains. Some extra moisture slips into the area for the first few days of this week, so min RH`s will be at or above 20% for the area. By the end of the week, we will see min RH`s drop a little. Ventilation rates the next couple of days will range from fair to good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 62 85 66 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 85 56 77 58 / 0 10 40 30 Las Cruces 86 56 85 61 / 0 0 10 10 Alamogordo 85 54 84 58 / 0 0 10 10 Cloudcroft 63 39 63 43 / 10 0 20 10 Truth or Consequences 82 54 84 58 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 78 51 80 54 / 0 0 10 10 Deming 86 55 85 58 / 0 0 10 10 Lordsburg 83 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 87 61 82 66 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 86 55 81 59 / 0 0 20 10 Fort Hancock 91 59 84 63 / 0 10 40 30 Loma Linda 81 54 76 58 / 0 0 30 20 Fabens 89 59 82 63 / 0 0 30 20 Santa Teresa 85 58 81 61 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 86 59 83 63 / 0 0 20 10 Jornada Range 85 54 84 58 / 0 0 10 10 Hatch 86 53 86 58 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 85 58 83 61 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 84 54 82 58 / 0 0 20 10 Mayhill 68 42 75 47 / 10 10 20 10 Mescalero 73 42 74 46 / 10 0 10 10 Timberon 71 42 71 45 / 0 0 20 10 Winston 74 43 77 46 / 0 0 10 10 Hillsboro 81 50 83 54 / 0 0 10 10 Spaceport 83 50 84 56 / 0 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 78 46 80 48 / 0 0 10 10 Hurley 81 49 81 53 / 0 0 10 10 Cliff 86 48 89 51 / 0 0 10 10 Mule Creek 80 51 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 80 51 80 56 / 0 0 10 10 Animas 85 54 85 57 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 83 54 83 56 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 85 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 81 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt