Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
026 FXUS64 KEPZ 270454 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1054 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Hot and dry conditions will continue through the period with near record highs possible on Friday. No rainfall is expected for at least the next week. Winds will be on the light side with just some breezy conditions possible early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Not much change to the forecast. Highly amplified upper ridge will gradually become more west to east oriented through the period, but temperatures will remain above normal and no precip on the horizon. Tomorrow still looks like the hottest day with H85 temps warming up to around 30-32C across the region. This will lead to record or near record high temperatures for many areas. The record for El Paso is 98 and it looks like that will at least be tied. Most of the lowland areas will be in the 95-98 degree range. A weak push of cooler air comes for the weekend with highs dropping 3 to 6 degrees by Sunday across the Borderland. Models have backed off on bringing northern US trough into the area for Tue and just have some increased easterly winds while trough stays further north and east. Another weak trough passes to our north Wed and may drop temps a couple degrees, but no matter what model or ensemble mean you look at, temperatures do not get back to normal which by the end of the period is around 83 degrees at KELP. Dry air does remain in place and with generally light winds, overnight lows will be falling into the 50s and 60s for the lowlands and mid 30s to mid 50s in the mountains. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions with light winds throughout the period expected. KTCS will see some drainage winds from the NW overnight, but overall the winds will be variable at most locations during this next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Hot and dry conditions through the period will continue. Min RH`s will generally be in the teens with a few 20s far east and mountains. Winds will remain easterly through the period and generally be under 15 mph, but low end breezy conditions are possible Tuesday. Vent rates will be good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 93 67 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 85 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 92 62 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 92 61 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 70 49 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 91 64 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 88 59 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 93 60 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 93 62 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 91 65 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 91 59 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 93 61 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 85 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 92 63 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 90 63 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 91 63 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 91 57 96 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 93 59 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 92 63 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 89 60 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 83 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 82 52 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 79 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 85 53 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 90 60 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 91 59 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 88 42 90 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 89 57 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 97 50 97 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 90 47 92 50 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 88 60 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 94 60 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 91 60 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 93 60 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 90 62 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...01-Barham