Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
905 FNUS74 KEPZ 232030 CCA FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Moser Fire...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 203 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0500 MDT on May 24. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... .DISCUSSION... Near critical fire concerns will become critical on Saturday. Very low RH values of 8-10% are expected for the entire forecast period. RH Recovery in the night will range from 25-30%. High temperatures will be near 70F for the period. Wind speeds will be mainly from the west and will be between 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph on Saturday. Ventilation rates will be excellent today, very good on Friday, and excellent again on Saturday. .REST OF TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 39. Max humidity........27 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 13 mph. Mixing height.......200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 20 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 5 AM Sky (%).........6 Weather cov.....NONE Weather type....NONE Tstm cov........NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 LAL.............1 Temp............39 RH..............27 20 ft wind......W 13 20 ft wind gust.21 Mix hgt (ft)....200 Transport wind..W 20 Haines index....4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 Ventrate Cat....POOR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 69. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 26 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 13 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41100 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (115500 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........5 5 7 9 9 11 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............39 47 57 63 68 69 RH..............27 21 15 13 11 10 20 ft wind......W 10 W 10 W 7 SW 9 SW 9 SW 13 20 ft wind gust.20 20 14 20 20 26 Mix hgt (ft)....2900 2900 6800 6800 7000 7000 Transport wind..W 16 W 16 W 13 W 13 W 18 W 18 Haines index....4 4 4 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..41 41 79 79 116 116 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 41. Max humidity........31 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 14 to 16 mph. Mixing height.......200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 24 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Very good (110700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (3600 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........10 7 7 6 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............65 53 47 43 RH..............11 15 18 27 20 FT wind......SW 15G28 SW 14G24 SW 15G25 W 16G25 Mix hgt (ft)....5800 5800 200 200 Transport wind..SW 22 SW 22 SW 23 W 24 Haines index....5 5 5 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..111 111 4 4 Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 16 to 22 mph. Gusts up to 37 mph increasing to 41 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......8200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 30 mph increasing to 40 to 45 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Good (91600 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (186300 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (296500 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky (%).........5 7 8 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 Temp............41 58 69 RH..............31 17 11 20 FT wind......W 16G29 W 18G37 W 21G40 Mix hgt (ft)....2900 4900 8200 Transport wind..W 30 W 40 W 45 Haines index....4 4 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..92 186 297 Ventrate Cat....GOOD EXNT EXNT .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY... Clear. Lows around 40. Highs around 70. West winds around 13 mph. .MEMORIAL DAY... Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 8 mph. .TUESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds around 8 mph. $$ Forecaster...SLUSHER/RIBAIL Requested by...Brian Anderson Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2414795.3/EPZ .DELDT 05/23/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Brian.d.anderson@usda.gov