185
FXUS64 KEWX 311951
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
251 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Unfortunately, there continues to be low confidence in the forecast
through the short term regarding the timing and location of any
additional showers and thunderstorms. CAMs continue to depict
isolated to scattered convection developing this afternoon/evening,
though there are large differences in where and when. Therefore,
we`ll be focusing our attention on some of the most likely areas for
development which include a surface boundary approaching the
northern Hill Country which is evident in airport observations and
satellite imagery, a dryline that remains in west Texas, and the SDB
Mountains in Mexico. Convection is already noted over the mountains,
though any convection that develops along the aforementioned
boundary will likely impact the area first due to its proximity.
Regardless of where and when storms develop, there remains a threat
for a few severe thunderstorms as there is plenty of SBCAPE west and
sufficient elevated instability remaining where storms moved through
this morning. There remains plenty of effective bulk shear as well.
Large hail will be the main threat with storms today with a
secondary threat for damaging wind gusts.

Any activity should diminish after sunset with generally quiet
conditions overnight. Additional isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm activity is possible tomorrow afternoon, with a focus
on the coastal plains during the afternoon associated with a weak
500mb disturbance, transitioning to western areas in the evening as
dryline activity will attempt to push into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Much of the upcoming week is largely expected to remain precipitation
free along with above normal temperatures across all areas. Expect
daytime highs to range from the lower 90s to near 103 degrees Sunday
through Tuesday, with highs increasing into the mid 90s to 110
degrees for the remainder of the forecast period. Overnight lows will
be warm as well, with 70s to near 80 for most locations. The NBM
numbers looked too low and we have bumped these values up for the mid
to late week period. With temperatures set to increase and recent
rains helping to keep humidity levels up, we will likely see the
return of heat headlines for a good portion of the upcoming work
week.

We will keep a low chance for afternoon showers and storms in
the forecast for Sunday across our far northern counties. The models
indicate some weak lift embedded in the west/southwest flow aloft
will move across the region. As we head into the middle to late
portion of the forecast, the medium range models show the subtropical
ridge building to our west, which would bring some northwest flow
aloft to the region. These types of patterns to tend to favor late
night/early morning MCS activity, but overall confidence in the
details is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. As of
now we have shower/thunderstorm free TAFs due to low confidence in
the forecast, though some isolated to scattered activity remains
possible later this afternoon and evening which could produce sub-VFR
conditions. Otherwise, an MVFR cloud deck will likely develop
overnight which will lift and scatter through the late morning hours
Saturday. Additional isolated storms are possible again Saturday
afternoon, but again low confidence in placement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  90  76  94 /  20  30  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  90  75  93 /  10  30  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  76  96 /  10  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            71  87  74  90 /  20  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 100  80 100 /  10  10  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  88  73  91 /  20  30  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             75  95  76  97 /  20  10  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  91  75  94 /  10  30  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  90  77  92 /  10  40  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  93  78  96 /  20  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  95  78  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Gale
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...Gale