454
FXUS64 KEWX 022352
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
652 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Confidence in shower and thunderstorm chances remains low this
afternoon and evening across the region. We will keep a low chance
for showers and storms in the forecast out west across far western
Val Verde county to account for any activity that develops over the
lower Trans-Pecos region. In addition, the complex of storms
currently over northwest Texas could survive and make it into
portions of the northern Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor.
Otherwise, look for another warm night with low temperatures mainly
in the 70s. On Monday, temperatures continue to nudge upward and we
could be close to Heat Advisory thresholds across portions of the Rio
Grande plains south of Del Rio into the San Antonio Metro area.
There will also be another low chance for showers and storms across
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor north of San Antonio as a weak
upper disturbance moves across north Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Rain has basically been removed from consideration in the long term.
A weak perturbation is still shown in the 12Z ECM data for Tuesday
afternoon/evening and repeating again Wednesday, but the GFS has
trended with the NBM and lowering rain chances to being unworthy of
mention. As heights aloft build east into the west half of TX, the H7
winds turn more westerly and remove the moisture that might get have
gotten convection going in the northerly flow aloft. Instead, we`ll
get more sunshine and heating as is shown in the MEX MOS trends for
the middle of the week. Highs will likely reach 100 for the SAT area
and will potentially get there for the first time this year around
Austin. However, we`ll stop shy of that forecast as we noted a pretty
good amount of cumulative rain totals of 1.5 to over 3 inches in the
past 5 days which should consume some of that heating with
evapotranspiration. Heat index values already have jumped above 100
degrees over the Coastal Prairies today and this will likely trend
higher into advisory levels by Tuesday. Some of the Apparent T values
might suggest we get into another excessive heat category, but this
may settle out as the air gets drier each day. Pattern-wise, our
hottest two days might be Wednesday and Thursday with the mid and
upper level ridges parked over Central TX. On Friday, the H7 ridge
axis goes east and potentially opens up a deeper marine layer for a
temperature trend reversal. However, ridging above this level
remains, and we may still see some near heat advisory conditions
Friday. Hopefully by this time we begin to see some deeper inland
intrusions of the sea breeze which typically makes the evening air
much more tolerable. Just outside the 7-day forecast there remains
some signs of upper ridge weakening and potential some convective
potential, but the patterns with each model run do not show much
consistency or agreement with one another.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions will continue through around 05-06Z before MVFR
ceilings return to the majority of the area through Monday morning.
IFR conditions are expected over portions of the southern Edwards
Plateau and western Hill Country. Thunderstorms will remain north of
AUS tonight with a low chance for showers or a storm near DRT later
this evening. Chances for this are too low to mention in the forecast
at this time. VFR conditions return late morning or early afternoon
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  94  78  96 /  10  20  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  94  77  96 /  10  20  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  98  77  98 /   0  20  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  91  75  93 /  10  20  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 103  80 106 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  92  76  95 /  10  20  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  99  76 102 /  10  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  95  76  97 /   0  20  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  91  78  93 /   0  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  97  78  99 /  10  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           79  99  78 101 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...27