Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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786 FXUS64 KEWX 171727 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1227 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 An upper level trough axis stretches from northwest Texas into northeast Sonora Mexico. A weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft is seen on satellite upstream of our region, across interior Mexico, and isolated convection has been noted in the higher terrain of Mexico. A few HREF members indicate the impulse generating isolated showers and storms closer to the Rio Grande through the overnight hours and into south Texas through the morning hours, potentially also clipping our southeast counties, southeast of San Antonio. Then, as the final shortwave digs east through the base of the trough, isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop out of Coahulia Mexico and into the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and evening. A few HREF members also indicate isolated showers and storms developing into the Hill Country and as far east as the I-35 corridor this evening. A few storms late this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing small hail and downbursts producing gusty winds up to 50 mph. Some isolated showers and storms could linger past sunset, until the upper level forcing passes east overnight. Weak upper level ridging is forecast to build over the area on Saturday, producing dry, mostly sunny, and much warmer temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37, in the upper 90s along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, and 100 to 104 degrees along the Rio Grande. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 An upper level ridge will slowly move across TX over the weekend and strengthen during the beginning of next week. The low level flow will be southeasterly through the end of the period. Hot temperatures will continue into next week. Highs will be from the 90s to 105 Sunday. The central part of the area may warm a few degrees more Monday and Tuesday. Record highs may be possible along the Rio Grande, and we may see our first 100 degree day in the central part of the CWA. We may need to issue some heat products early next week. Wednesday the upper ridge will shift toward the east,and the flow over TX will become west-southwesterly. A shortwave trough will move through the pattern and may provide enough lift to generate some showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the CWA. Most of the area will stay dry. Temperatures may drop a couple of degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR flight conditions likely prevail through the period with light winds. Isolated high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the Rio Grande and portions of the Edwards Plateau. Activity could be close enough to KDRT to insert VCTS in this TAF package from 21Z through 03Z. The high anvil cloud cover from this activity could stretch east into the I-35 TAF site locations. The morning may see some slight visibility reductions at the I-35 sites with light shallow fog. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 67 93 71 92 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 92 70 91 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 94 70 93 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 66 92 70 91 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 104 76 105 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 91 69 89 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 96 70 96 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 92 69 92 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 94 72 93 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 67 95 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...05 Aviation...Brady