Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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919 FXUS64 KEWX 260746 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 246 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Today and Monday will be the hottest two days of the spring season, and we`d like to think summer season as well. The eastward shift of the base of the Central Plains upper trough will pull the dry higher terrain air east into the rest of South Central Texas, leading to the peak period of this early season Heatwave. The hottest ambient air temperatures seen in any May at DRT will reach heat advisory criteria based on temperature, while in areas to the south and east, the heat index values getting into the 113 to 115 degree range have much of the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Prairies in an Excessive Heat Warning. A similar day is projected for Monday for most areas, so we`ll opt to extend this hazard to carry over into Monday. Tonight`s minimum temperatures are again going to be very warm with more highest minimum temperature records likely to fall. At the end of this heatwave nightmare, there could be a few areas destabilizing as a mid-level moisture fetch from the Pacific crosses through Mexico. This could set up an inverted-V sounding look for 00Z Tuesday. As a result we`ve opted for an isolated mention of thunderstorms for parts of the forecast area as a precursor for slightly better rain chances to develop after 00Z. We could be entering that transition period where the potential for hail is reduced, but there should be enough heat out there to make any storm that develops a risk for producing strong wind gusts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A slight pattern change during the long-term portion of the forecast could lead to prolonged low chances of showers and storms during the extended period. The center of the upper ridge will be well south of our area and several weak disturbances will allow for at least a slight chance to chance of showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and evening periods beginning Monday and in place each day through the upcoming work-week. It is much too difficult to really pin down locations, amounts of rainfall, and impacts as what occurs each day will likely be impacted by what happened during the prior day. Some periods of locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out for certain periods as PWAT values approach 2 inches at times. In addition, higher CAPE values will also lead to possible strong storm activity each day. With the increased rain chances and moisture, high temperatures will be lower once again ranging from near 90 in the northeast to near 100 along the Rio Grande. This will negate any need for heat products next week. Overall, next week will be a tough forecast as many want beneficial rainfall, but amounts and locations will be highly uncertain day-to-day. While most locations have 20-30 PoPs each day next week, there will be some who unfortunately most likely not see any rain at all next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Low stratus deck should be somewhat repetitive of what we had over the past 24 hours with all sites remaining MVFR or better. There could be a faster mixing to VFR later this morning as the models are projecting a farther east push of the dry-line than from previous days. For this reason, will show VFR skies by 16Z along I-35 and also show a one hour delay in the return of low clouds late tonight. && .CLIMATE... (RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 SUN MON 05/26 05/27 -------------------------- AUS 97/2018 100/2011 ATT 99/2018 100/2011 SAT 100/1989 100/2011 DRT 106/2018 106/2018 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 100 77 100 74 / 10 0 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 99 75 100 73 / 10 0 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 103 76 101 74 / 10 0 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 99 73 97 72 / 10 0 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 111 75 110 82 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 73 97 72 / 10 0 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 105 75 105 74 / 0 0 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 100 75 101 72 / 10 0 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 98 78 97 75 / 10 10 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 103 77 104 75 / 0 0 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 104 78 103 76 / 0 0 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Monday for Kinney- Maverick-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Monday for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette- Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Medina-Travis-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...29 Aviation...18