Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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026 FXUS64 KEWX 261122 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 622 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Cool air advection and lowering dew points will get us off to a lower start to warming temperatures today. The midday sun will be nearly unobstructed, so the moderate 5-15 mph winds out of the north will not contribute much to cool air advection once mixing gets going. Thus the lower starting point will be good for up to 6 degree cooling trend off yesterday`s maxes with the largest delta being over the southern counties. Northern counties may see about the same temperature as yesterday since the cool front mixed in earlier yesterday. Surface winds will decouple much faster this evening, but the dry air and mostly clear skies should make for another pleasant evening with most areas near or below 80 degrees by dusk. Light N/NW winds and mostly sunny skies Friday should allow temperatures to climb back to above normals albeit only by a few degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Overall, the latest round of medium range models remain very similar with the expected weather pattern through the upcoming weekend. High pressure in the mid and upper levels remains anchored over the desert southwest, while an area of low pressure with the remnants of Helene continues over the mid-Mississippi River valley. In the lower levels, northerly winds will usher drier air into the region. Look for daytime highs to remain a few degrees above normal, with overnight lows a degree or two below normal. Some slight model differences are noted for early next week regarding the potential for a weak upper low developing over portions of western and north Texas as depicted by the GFS vs. a weak trough axis shown by the ECMWF. Either way, we will keep the forecast dry for now as it appears the lower-levels remain too dry for any mention of rainfall. Another weak surge of cool/dry air may move in on Tuesday, with perhaps some slight cooling on Wednesday. Until that time, look for daytime highs and overnight lows to return to above normal values for early October. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Few clouds are expected through the period with a persistent N or NE wind. A few gusts to near 20 knots could occur today, but sustained winds around 12 knots should catch most of the mixed wind periods. Then light and shifty winds are forecast for late tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 89 64 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 63 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 86 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 65 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 61 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 90 60 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 62 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 62 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 65 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 92 66 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...18