452
FXUS64 KEWX 211136
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Key Message:

- Isolated showers and storms today.

Isolated showers along the middle Texas coast are working inland into
the coastal plains early this morning. A weakening trend is noted,
but based on radar trends we will keep a low chance for isolated
showers in the forecast for a few more hours across southern Lavaca
and DeWitt Counties. For the remainder of today, some drying will
take place across the upper Texas coast, with slightly higher
moisture moving westward. For today, we will keep a low chance for
afternoon and early evening convection in the forecast along and
south of a Cuero to San Antonio to near Del Rio line. On Sunday, the
models differ in where convection will develop, but generally show
low coverage within a weakly forced environment. For now we will keep
the forecast dry on Sunday, but may need to add a low chance south of
Highway 90.

Temperatures through the weekend will change little, with near
normal highs and above normal lows. Similar to yesterday, the NBM
looks too cool with the overnight lows given cloud cover and
occasionally gusty south to southeast winds. With this in mind, we
have trended overnight lows above the NBM guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Near normal high temperatures and above normal low temperatures
  through the period.

- Low rain chances over the coastal plains through Tuesday will
  gradually expand westward toward the I-35 corridor from Wednesday
  through Friday.

The large scale weather pattern for the upcoming week remains fairly
stagnant with a broad trough over the western U.S. and a ridge of
high pressure over the eastern half of the country. South to
southeast flow from the surface into the mid levels of the atmosphere
will persist. With a continued supply of moisture, daytime heating
and some weak upper disturbances, we should see a chance for
afternoon and early evening convection mainly across the coastal
plains into the Highway 77 corridor through Tuesday. Some of the
convection may eventually work farther west toward the I-35 corridor
for Wednesday through Friday and we have boosted rain chances
slightly above the current NBM guidance. Persistence along with a
blend of some of the warmer guidance was used for overnight low
temperatures. As for highs, the NBM appears reasonable and did not
deviate too much from the current round of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

High pressure remains mostly in control over the area, but a deep
layer of SSE winds will transport pooled tropical moisture pinned
against the NE coast of Mexico into South TX through the TAF period.
Early morning MVFR stratus pockets continue while good wind mixing
keeps the appearance more like SCT V BKN according to the Satellite
Nighttime Microphysics imagery and first sight of daylight. From
satellite imagery, AUS/SAT are most likely to see sustained periods
of cigs into 15Z, so will go prevailing there and as TEMPO groups at
DRT/AUS. VFR skies should prevail by 17Z and last through midnight.
Expect some afternoon/early evening winds to gust to 27 Knots or so
due to the uniform winds, good pressure gradient, and good mixing.
Low shower chances are on the order of 20 percent and for a good part
of the day. Thus will wait out the trend for the day crew to watch
for more imminent impacts if any.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  97  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  95  74  95 /  10   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  77  97 /  10  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  92  74  93 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  94  75  93 /   0  10   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  94  76  95 /  20  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  94  75  95 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18