Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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955 FXUS64 KEWX 231144 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 644 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Area radars and surface observations show a cold front pushing southward into central Val Verde and northwestern Edwards county early this morning. Some light showers have developed along this boundary with a few showers noted farther south along the Rio Grande near Del Rio. The hi-res models generally show the best chance for rainfall today will remain confined to the central and northern portions of Val Verde county as well as portions of northern Edwards county. The chance for a strong to severe storm is low and we have removed this from the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Rainfall amounts of 1/2"-1" are possible, along with some isolated amounts up to near 2". Again, most of this is expected to fall over rural areas of the mentioned counties. Elsewhere, we will keep some low chances (20%) for rain in the forecast for portions of the Hill Country this morning as weak forcing along the front could aid in the development of a few showers or storms. The leading edge of the front should make some gradual southward progress into the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau today and areas behind the front will see some cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s. A few of the hi-res models do show the leading edge of the front moving into portions of the I-35 corridor near and north of Austin. This seems plausible and we will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as needed. Ahead of the front, not much relief is anticipated and we will keep highs in the lower to mid 90s. If the front drops a little farther southward and clouds fill in behind the boundary, our current forecast temperatures might be a little high. For tonight, a few showers or storms may linger over portions of the Hill Country to the nearby I-35 corridor, but overall prospects for rain are low at this time. However, as an upper level trough axis sags southward into the region on Tuesday, we should see a slight increase in our rain chances along with a slight decrease in high temperatures. For now, we will limit rain chances to 20-30% and monitor trends of future model runs. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The passage of an upper level short wave across the local area on Tuesday evening brings chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. As the night progresses, a cold front is forecast to push across the Hill Country and the southern Edwards Plateau on Wednesday morning. The frontal boundary continues to push to the south with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and behind it. By Wednesday mid afternoon, the front is forecast to be across the Coastal Plains with a dry air mass spreading in the wake of the boundary along with cooler temperatures. Wednesday`s highs are forecast to range from the mid 80s across the Hill Country to lower 90s across the Coastal Plains. Look for upper 70s across the Hill Country by sunset as dry and cooler northerly winds push across South Central Texas. Partly cloudy skies to turn mostly clear with overnight lows in the upper 50s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Sunny skies and cooler temperatures are in store for South Central Texas on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s to start the day on Friday morning and 60s to near 70 to begin the weekend on Saturday. A nice weekend is forecast with sunny skies highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s with a warm trend beginning on Sunday as highs reach the 90s over most places. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Convection along the Rio Grande near Del Rio continues and we have opted to add a TEMPO group through 15Z with MVFR conditions in -SHRA. By late morning, most of the activity should gradually move north of DRT, so will carry VCSH for now. Elsewhere, we will mention a TEMPO group through mid-morning for MVFR conditions along the I-35 corridor. Confidence in MVFR is a little lower at AUS and the forecast may need to be adjusted pending observations. VFR is expected at all sites this afternoon and evening. Low cloud development is anticipated overnight into Tuesday morning. For now, we will mention MVFR at AUS as some lower cigs may filter in behind a weak cold front. We will mention low clouds in the remainder of our TAF sites, but keep bases VFR for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 95 73 94 70 / 10 20 30 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 73 94 69 / 10 20 30 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 74 95 70 / 10 10 30 40 Burnet Muni Airport 89 70 89 68 / 20 30 30 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 75 95 75 / 20 10 20 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 71 90 68 / 20 20 30 40 Hondo Muni Airport 94 73 94 71 / 10 10 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 95 72 94 69 / 10 20 30 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 73 92 70 / 10 20 30 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 75 94 73 / 10 10 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 96 76 95 74 / 0 10 20 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...17 Aviation...Platt