Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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339 FXUS64 KEWX 221801 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 101 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A cold front will sag into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande this evening, then Central Texas, the Hill Country, and farther south along the Rio Grande overnight. Forcing by the front will generate low chances of showers and thunderstorms over these areas. Forecast soundings show a potential for strong wind gusts and hail northwest of a Del Rio to Rocksprings line. Locally heavy downpours are also possible. The front drifts a little farther to the south on Monday and stalls near the I-35 and US 90 corridors to portions of the Rio Grande Monday night. Any dynamics aloft pass well to the north of our area, moisture convergence decreases, and a minimum of forcing (mainly heating) lead to low chances of showers and thunderstorms along and behind the front on Monday. Loss of heating keeps rain chances out of the forecast for Monday night. Temperatures remain above average for the most part, except near average across northern parts of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Valley. Otherwise, a pattern of night into morning low clouds with afternoon sunshine continues. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The stationary/diffused front over the service area will keep rain chances low during the day on Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 80s across the Hill Country/Edwards Plateau with mid-90s across the Coastal Plains. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday night, a renewed surge of the cold front will bring both cooler temperatures and increased chances for showers and isolated thunder. This could occur in two rounds, late Tuesday into Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening. the first round could be more isolated in nature as the diffused initial front begins to shift southwards. With disorganized forcing, storm motions don`t look as impressive and could allow for some of our anticipated isolated higher rainfall totals. The second round looks to be focused along the southward surging re-enforcing cold airmass. While this will be a little more widespread, the forward speed could help to limit additional rainfall amounts. Overall, widespread rainfall should generally range around one half inch, however there are some signals for higher amounts of a couple of inches of storm total. Thursday through Saturday`s weather pattern will be dominated by the potential development of a tropical system affecting the eastern Gulf of Mexico/inland. The more local effects will be a prolonged period of northern winds which should help to keep the forecast dry and near to slightly above climatological normal temperatures for this time of year (mid-80s to lower 90s). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 CIGs will lift to VFR across all areas by 19Z, then lower back to MVFR overnight into Monday morning. As a front moves into our area, SHRA/TSRA will develop across portions of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande this evening through Monday. Have maintained VCSH at KDRT, however later updates could go with prevailing or TSRA based on model/radar trends. Southeasterly winds prevail at 7 to 15 KTs, become light this evening, then gradually turn to northerly on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 95 73 94 / 0 10 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 95 72 94 / 0 10 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 96 73 95 / 0 0 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 72 89 70 90 / 20 20 20 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 92 75 95 / 20 20 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 92 71 91 / 20 10 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 73 94 73 94 / 0 0 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 94 71 94 / 0 10 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 93 72 92 / 0 10 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 94 75 94 / 0 0 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 75 95 75 95 / 0 0 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...36 Aviation...04