Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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114 FXUS64 KEWX 201833 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A 591 dm ridge remains centered over northeastern Mexico and south Texas early this afternoon. Despite its presence, we`ve managed to see a few isolated showers pop up once again under broad east- southeasterly surface flow. These showers are primarily daytime heating driven and won`t last much beyond the 6 pm hour as loss of solar heating commences. Highs will once again climb into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices possibly reaching 103-107 in some spots today. More of the same can be expected on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Showers look less likely Saturday as the high moves pretty much right over the top of us. Not much else meaningful to mention in the short term. Muggy and hot conditions are expected to continue. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Models remain in good to excellent agreement with a longwave trough in the western U.S. suppressing the upper level ridge over Texas this coming week. Besides general 500 mb height falls, the lower levels will change as shortwave troughs passing through the central and northern U.S. will result in a cold front progressing south, and progressively weakening, with time. The front will be like shallow boundary and likely stall just north of our area, but act as a focus for storms there, with outflow boundaries to increasing low-level convergence and lift over our area, while a shortwave trough moves through at mid-week to provide mid and upper level lift. The sensible weather will be an increase in POPs first in the far northwest on Sunday evening, then spreading east into the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country on Monday, then finally south and east across the entire area Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. But don`t get your hopes up too high for rain, as chances max out around 20-30 percent and rainfall will be spotty and generally light, with most locations receiving 1/10 inch or less, and only a lucky few receiving 1/4 inch. Temperatures will be near normal (upper 80s to lower 90s for highs and mid 60s to lower 70s for lows) throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Wash, rinse, repeat. Basically a carbon copy of the past couple of mornings with MVFR ceilings developing around 09Z at SAT and SSF and around 12Z at DRT. We should see rapid improvement after 15-17Z at all sites, with AUS looking to remain VFR at this time. Winds will generally be out of the ESE at 5-10 kts but could be a bit stronger at DRT, upwards of 10-15 kts after 17Z Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 97 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 94 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 96 78 95 / 10 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 96 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 94 72 94 / 10 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 74 94 / 0 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 97 75 96 / 10 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...Zeitler Aviation...MMM