308
FXUS64 KEWX 260748
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
248 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Cool air advection and lowering dew points will get us off to a
lower start to warming temperatures today. The midday sun will be
nearly unobstructed, so the moderate 5-15 mph winds out of the north
will not contribute much to cool air advection once mixing gets
going. Thus the lower starting point will be good for up to 6 degree
cooling trend off yesterday`s maxes with the largest delta being
over the southern counties. Northern counties may see about the same
temperature as yesterday since the cool front mixed in earlier
yesterday. Surface winds will decouple much faster this evening, but
the dry air and mostly clear skies should make for another pleasant
evening with most areas near or below 80 degrees by dusk. Light N/NW
winds and mostly sunny skies Friday should allow temperatures to
climb back to above normals albeit only by a few degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Overall, the latest round of medium range models remain very similar
with the expected weather pattern through the upcoming weekend. High
pressure in the mid and upper levels remains anchored over the desert
southwest, while an area of low pressure with the remnants of Helene
continues over the mid-Mississippi River valley. In the lower levels,
northerly winds will usher drier air into the region. Look for
daytime highs to remain a few degrees above normal, with overnight
lows a degree or two below normal.

Some slight model differences are noted for early next week regarding
the potential for a weak upper low developing over portions of
western and north Texas as depicted by the GFS vs. a weak trough axis
shown by the ECMWF. Either way, we will keep the forecast dry for now
as it appears the lower-levels remain too dry for any mention of
rainfall. Another weak surge of cool/dry air may move in on Tuesday,
with perhaps some slight cooling on Wednesday. Until that time, look
for daytime highs and overnight lows to return to above normal values
for early October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Few clouds are expected through the period with a persistent N or NE
wind. Decoupling overnight could change the direction at times, but
AUS & SAT may not see much decoupling in tonight`s period. A few
gusts to near 20 knots could occur in the daytime, but sustained
winds around 12 knots should catch most of the mixed wind periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  64  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  61  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  63  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            86  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  65  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  61  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  60  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        89  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  62  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  65  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           92  66  94  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18