178
FXUS62 KFFC 010537 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
137 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Only updates that were made were to account for ongoing trends
with temps a little warmer than forecasted. Also updated rain
chances to reflect the newest guidance which gives slightly more
confidence for showers to past the western third of the CWA. Still
not expecting anything to affect eastern GA at this time and
showers will be isolated to scattered in nature.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

 - Isolated showers are possible in western Georgia Saturday,
   but most of the area will remain dry.

 - Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday
   night, especially in northern Georgia.

This Evening through Saturday Night:

Upper level ridging will be replaced by weak troughing during
this period as a shortwave trough moves from the Ozarks to the
Ohio Valley. This transition will allow scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to gradually filter into the region
Saturday and Saturday night. Forecast rain chances through the day
on Saturday are in the 10 to 30 percent range over western
Georgia. Any thunder on Saturday should be limited due to anemic
CAPE profiles (MUCAPE values 300 to 700 J/kg). Severe weather is
not expected and any interruptions to daily activities should be
brief in nature. A surface high over the Atlantic and the
approaching shortwave will combine to keep east/southeast winds
moving in the region on Saturday at 4 to 12 kt. Afternoon highs
should range from the 70s in northwest Georgia (where clouds will
be pervasive) to the upper 80s in east central Georgia. Rain
chances will continue to inch upward Saturday night, especially in
northwest Georgia where proximity to the upper level trough will
be better. Expect rain chances near 60 percent in north Georgia,
falling to 10 percent near Macon.

Albright


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

A shortwave trough will be pushing across the Ohio Valley across
the Appalachians on Sunday, while at the surface a weak frontal
boundary approaches Georgia from the northwest. This will serve to
keep PoPs relatively elevated on Sunday, particularly across
northwest and north Georgia where scattered showers and
thunderstorms are most probable.

From Monday to Tuesday, the region will remain within weak quasi-
zonal flow aloft. PoPs will remain in the isolated to widely
scattered realm through midweek, with the highest PoPs relegated
to north Georgia as weak shortwave disturbances ripple to our
north. By late Wednesday into Thursday, as troughing builds back
eastward across the Great Lakes region, a weak cold front will be
ushered toward the area. PoPs will thus be on an upward trend from
north to south through Thursday ahead of the front. At this
point, significant severe weather concerns are not anticipated.

No huge temperature variations or anomalies are expected through
the period. Highs will be near to slightly below normal Sunday,
trending to near to slightly above normal through the work week
while initial near-normal lows will trend several degrees above
normal by midweek.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SCT/BKN mid-level and upper-level clouds are expected today.
Cloud decks will lower tonight with MVFR CIGs PSBL at ATL at the
very end of the TAF period (Sunday morning). Iso`d/sct`d -SHRA are
expected across the western half or so of GA today, but
confidence is relatively low regarding -SHRA occurring for an
extended time at ATL. Have maintained the PROB30 for -SHRA from
22z to 02z for the Atlanta area sites. The potential for TS is
very low at this time given little to no instability forecasted.
Winds will be SE at 5-10 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on -SHRA coverage.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  81  64  86 /  40  40  20  20
Atlanta         65  81  66  85 /  40  50  30  30
Blairsville     57  74  59  80 /  50  60  20  30
Cartersville    62  81  64  85 /  60  60  30  30
Columbus        67  84  67  88 /  40  40  20  20
Gainesville     63  79  65  84 /  50  50  20  30
Macon           66  85  67  87 /  20  30  10  20
Rome            63  81  65  86 /  60  60  20  30
Peachtree City  63  82  64  85 /  40  40  20  20
Vidalia         67  87  67  90 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Martin