Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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203 FXUS62 KFFC 221858 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 258 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The Southeast CONUS remains underneath a high pressure regime aloft, with a mid level ridge extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico towards New England. North and central Georgia will remain underneath northwesterly flow aloft through the remainder of the day into Monday. By Monday night, the ridge axis will clear the forecast area to the east, with the mid level flow then shifting to southwesterly. Surface high pressure underneath the ridge will influence the sensible weather through the short term period. This will be most notably apparent with the temperatures, with highs this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon forecast to rise into the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia. Considering dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 60s, morning lows will also remain quite balmy. Whether it be high or low temperatures, they are expected to be 7-15 degrees warmer than daily normals through the end of the period. Model guidance also continues to indicate a weakness in the surface high pressure in portions of north Georgia. This feature has allowed for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop to the north of the state line, which could spread southward into the northern tier later this afternoon. However, the organization of showers and thunderstorms appears to be unlikely, and severe weather is thus not expected. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in portions of far north Georgia once again tomorrow within the northwesterly flow aloft. King && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Current high pressure over the southern CONUS is expected to dampen beginning Monday when the low pressure system currently near the four corners region lifts northeastward into the mid MS valley. As it moves, an associated sfc level cold front will push into Tennessee and north Georgia by Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will in turn increase rain chances for north Georgia. As it pushes further southward through Wednesday and Thursday the rain chances look to increase along with the system. The EPS and GEFS are both indicating marginal shear and sfc based CAPE values at this time, so while there likely will be thunderstorms associated with these showers, it will likely be isolated in nature. The risk for any widespread severe weather remains low. Due to the relatively weak nature of the front and marginal shear values, organized thunderstorms are not expected and thus our QPF values remain mainly below 0.5" and will likely be isolated/scattered in nature. One positive of this, is the temperatures will start to decrease by Wednesday into the mid 80s and then the low 80s to start off the weekend. This will bring temps much closer to normal for this time of year. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate an area of low pressure forming over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving into the western/central Gulf of Mexico. NHC is now carrying an 80% chance for tropical development over the next 7 days. Current EPS and GEFS ensemble forecast tracks are indicating that anywhere from the Louisiana/MS coast line to Florida for any potential landfall at this time although models are beginning to come together better. Would like to see another run or two of consensus before certainty increases on our end. Another factor coming into play is how this troughing plays out over the eastern CONUS and how it will help steer the system. Current rainfall totals have gone up to around 3- 4" over the weekend but again with the uncertainty this is highly subject to change. More information should come together over the next couple of days although uncertainty still remains. Hernandez && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period, with FEW-SCT afternoon cu. Winds will be primarily W to NW at 5-8 kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable after 02-03Z and through the overnight hours. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 93 69 90 / 10 20 10 20 Atlanta 71 92 73 91 / 0 10 10 10 Blairsville 64 85 64 84 / 10 40 30 50 Cartersville 68 93 70 91 / 10 10 10 20 Columbus 71 94 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 69 90 70 88 / 10 20 10 20 Macon 71 94 72 92 / 10 0 0 10 Rome 68 92 68 91 / 10 10 10 20 Peachtree City 68 92 70 91 / 0 10 0 10 Vidalia 71 92 72 91 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...King