Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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184 FXUS62 KFFC 270544 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 144 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 No major changes have been made to the forecast other than tweaks to the wind forecast based on the latest NHC Helene track. Hurricane Helene continues to intensify over the E Gulf of Mexico, with expected landfall around the FL Big Bend area this evening. Helene will be moving quickly N after she makes landfall, with a potentially large area under the threat of hurricane or tropical storm force winds overnight tonight into Friday morning. The Predecessor Rain Event from Wednesday saturated soils across much of the area, so additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across much of the area are likely. Locally higher amounts are possible, particularly in the more persistent, training rain bands and over the NE terrain. WPC has much of the area under a high excessive rainfall risk. The area-wide Flood Watch remains in effect. The risk of tornadoes continues, mainly along and to the E of Helene`s path. We`ve already seen rotating cells over the SE corner of the County Warning Area (CWA). That area is also closer to some sizable breaks in the overcast across the JAX CWA and more unstable air. However, even low CAPE values will support isolated tornadoes. SPC issued a Tornado Watch earlier which remains valid until this evening. We have opted to expand this watch a bit farther to the W. Additional expansions are possible, followed by a possible new watch later. Preparations for strong winds and additional heavy rainfall should be rushed to completion before sunset today! /SEC && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Fortunately, much quieter conditions are expected next week in the wake of Helene. Aside from ongoing flooding concerns on rivers and larger waterways, only minimal PoPs are included in far north Georgia around the lingering cutoff low through the weekend. The remainder of the long term period next week currently looks dry. The cutoff low finally lifts northeastward and weak northwest flow aloft builds into the region before weak ridging builds eastward by late week. Temperatures will be largely near seasonal averages. RW && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 As Hurricane Helene continues to move into central and northern Georgia conditions will remain very hazardous for aviation. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue in the region through 13Z Friday. Then conditions will gradually improve from south to north, with prevailing VFR/MVFR likely by 21Z Friday. Winds will remain hazardous in the region through 16Z Friday, with gusts in the 50 to 75 kt range possible. Winds should improve after 16Z, though gusts in the 20 to 35 kt range may linger through 00Z Saturday. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF. The center of Helene remains south of ATL and confidence is high that winds will continue to increase through 09Z. Moderate confidence in gusts over 50 kt at ATL between 08Z and 13Z Friday. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 62 79 63 79 / 10 10 10 10 Atlanta 63 77 63 78 / 10 10 10 10 Blairsville 58 68 59 72 / 30 50 30 40 Cartersville 63 77 61 78 / 20 20 10 10 Columbus 63 82 64 83 / 0 10 0 10 Gainesville 63 75 63 77 / 20 20 20 10 Macon 63 82 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 63 76 62 80 / 30 30 10 20 Peachtree City 61 78 61 79 / 10 10 0 0 Vidalia 65 85 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016- 019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113. Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027- 030>039-041>055-057-060>062-066-067-073>076-078-085-086-098-112- 113. Hurricane Warning for GAZ056-058-059-068>072-079>084-089>097- 102>111. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Albright